Wholesale inventories rise 0.6%, topping 0.5% estimate

• Wholesale inventories recorded a 0.6% month-over-month increase, following an unrevised 0.5% gain in the prior month.

• Retail inventories grew 0.3% month-over-month, matching the prior month's figure after it was revised upward from +0.2% to +0.3%.

• Wholesale inventories stood at $1,011.5 billion, a 7.4% rise from a year earlier.

• Retail inventories reached $885.3 billion, up 4.8% compared to the same period last year.

September saw a 0.6% rise in US wholesale inventories, according to advance estimates from the Census Bureau. This came after a 0.5% uptick in August.

Retail inventories also rose 0.3%, the same as August's upwardly revised figure. Both categories were higher compared to their year-ago levels. The data is seasonally adjusted and accounts for trading day differences, but it does not account for price changes.

A quick take: The pace of wholesale stockbuilding increased, while retail inventory growth remained unchanged. Inventory accumulation can contribute to GDP growth when it speeds up, but rising stock levels may indicate either anticipation of higher sales or an excess of unsold merchandise. To assess the true impact, analysts need to examine sales data and inflation-adjusted quarterly numbers. By themselves, these figures provide little guidance for Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields, or the dollar.

About the data: The advance inventory estimates measure the month-end value of goods on the books of wholesalers and retailers. These early figures may be revised later and are not inflation-adjusted. Market participants watch inventory data for signals on demand, business activity, and the potential contribution to GDP.