Why China Could Lead AI by 2030 Even With a Chip Gap

China has a real chance to be the global leader in AI models by 2030, according to Bloomberg Intelligence (BI). Its chipmakers, though, are only seen reaching competitive level by then.

Hong Kong's main technology benchmark is trending toward that divide. The Hang Seng Tech Index will shift toward AI and hardware stocks in December.

Low Prices Give China Its AI Advantage

BI analysts led by Francis Chan identify cost as China's key strength. Their view is that software optimization skills leave the country well positioned for cheaper AI deployment.

US models may keep a narrow edge at the frontier. President Donald Trump has said the US leads China by about a year. BI measured that advantage at 3% on benchmarks, BeInCrypto reported this month.

Being out front in AI has not yet become a money-maker. Chinese AI firms, just like their international peers, are still trying to find ways to profit from their technology.

A price war between these companies means profits remain distant until pricing turns more rational, in the analysts' assessment. BI nonetheless finds an opportunity in Hong Kong's stock market, where the Hang Seng Tech Index has trailed the global AI trade.

The overhaul should help the benchmark capture gains from other corners of China's high-tech economy, BI says. Two Chinese AI model developers currently hold places in the index: Zhipu and MiniMax, both added in June with starting weights of 0.53% and 0.36%.

“The changes could materially improve the index’s growth profile and broaden exposure toward advanced hardware, AI and robotics,” BI noted.

In December, the index will grow to 50 members from 30. Market value will determine 40 seats, while the remaining 10 will be selected based on sales growth during the prior year.

The new roster is set to be announced by Hang Seng Indexes on November 20; the changes go live on December 7.

Two Capitals Are the Crux of China's Chip Gap

For Chinese chipmakers, the climb is longer. BI sees the country probably closing the technology gap in semiconductors by 2030, but not reaching full self-sufficiency.

Foreign chips can make up some of the deficit, though two governments control how much gets through.

Washington has given the green light to Nvidia's H200 for the Chinese market, and Trump said Washington would hold on to 25% of the proceeds.

Anthropic has advocated the reverse: stricter export restrictions that would solidify an American edge of 12 to 24 months by 2028.

Beijing has left the door barely open. Purchases were initially limited, and from July selected AI companies were permitted to buy small volumes. Those shipments represented under 1% of Nvidia's data-center revenue in the quarter through July.

Trade curbs, in BI's view, are a broader obstacle for Chinese technology companies. Still, the expectation is that these restrictions will disperse China's industrial growth over more countries rather than bring it to a halt.

Outside AI, China is forecast to be the front-runner in 8 of 17 strategic technologies by 2030, including energy storage and biopharma manufacturing. The report adds that such leadership will not shield the country's economy from a slowdown.

Over the next decade, Bloomberg Economics projects average growth of 3.6%, against 5.2% over the prior three years.