Willy Woo's Bitcoin simulations peg median $1M at 2033

Willy Woo's Bitcoin simulations project the median trajectory to hit $1.03 million in February 2033. That path initially drops 43% from the 2028 cycle peak.

Woo emphasizes that his model is not a forecast, but he sees $241,000 to $413,000 as a plausible 2028 peak. The 29th percentile path he highlights never achieves $1 million. Investors aiming for that amount hold for over six years on the median path.

What Assumptions Do the Bitcoin Simulations Make on Diminishing Returns?

Woo created a Monte Carlo simulation, a technique that conducts thousands of random runs to chart potential results. The model was trained on price data from the 2018 market trough to the 2022 trough.

10,000 POSSIBLE FUTURE PATHS

A random-walk simulation trained on BTC accounting for power law degradation of returns.

She's optimistic, I think between 28th and 50th percentile is reasonable.

i.e. 2028 top between 241k-413k

It's a simulation, NOT my prediction.

— Willy Woo (@willywoo) October 26, 2026

Woo excluded older records from when 100x returns were easily achieved. He contended that derivatives, ETFs, and quick liquidations more accurately represent the current market.

A power-law decay parameter of 0.45 diminishes returns per cycle. In addition, the simulation monitors Bitcoin's position within its market cycle.

What Is the Spread Between Bull and Bear Paths by 2030?

The median scenario peaks at $413,000 in December 2028, then declines to $234,000 by April 2030. The 29th percentile path lies above 29% of runs. It rises to $241,000 in December 2028 and falls to $126,000 in April 2030.

Bitcoin's subsequent low has historically rebounded from the preceding high, and Woo chose that route for that reason.

At the outer boundaries, the 90th percentile scenario reaches $1.44 million in March 2029. The 10th percentile drops to $51,900 by April 2030.

Every one of the four highlighted trajectories records cycle highs from December 2028 through March 2029. Meanwhile, a distinct 500-day halving rule locates the selling window in 2029.

The simulation assumes that future returns follow the pattern from 2018 to 2022. Thus, an alteration in market composition would invalidate it. Similarly, cycle instruments face a comparable examination, as Bitcoin traded under each band of the well-known rainbow chart in June.

If power-law decay persists, each cycle produces smaller multiples, and the $1 million target shifts later on the timeline.