XRP nears $1 as ETF outflows and bearish signals mount

Key takeaways

• On Monday, XRP is trading close to $1.09 following a drop of more than 10% last week, with sellers still dominating the wider market.
• US spot XRP ETFs saw net outflows of $529,510 last week, snapping two straight weeks of positive institutional flows.
• With bearish technical indicators persisting, XRP risks a test of the psychological $1 support level.

XRP continues to face selling pressure on Monday, trading near $1.097 after shedding more than 10% of its value in the previous week. 

The digital asset remains deeply in bearish territory as weakening institutional demand, deteriorating derivatives positioning, and unfavourable macroeconomic conditions hinder any recovery attempts.

XRP ETF outflows indicate cooling institutional demand

Institutional appetite for XRP weakened last week, reversing the positive momentum seen over the prior two weeks.

According to SoSoValue, US spot XRP ETFs recorded $529,510 in net outflows last week, breaking a streak of two consecutive weeks of inflows.

For XRP, the return to negative weekly flows comes at a particularly vulnerable moment, as the cryptocurrency is already facing considerable technical weakness.

Beyond ETF withdrawals, derivatives market data suggests traders are increasingly positioning for more downside.

According to CoinGlass, XRP’s long-to-short ratio declined to 0.89 on Monday, nearing its lowest point in over a month.

A ratio below one means short positions outnumber long positions in the measured market, indicating that traders are leaning toward further price declines.

Additional data from CryptoQuant reinforces this bearish view. The analytics platform’s market summary shows large whale orders across XRP’s spot and futures markets, accompanied by persistent sell-side dominance.

This combination suggests that larger market participants remain active while selling pressure continues to outweigh buying demand.

CryptoQuant also notes heating conditions in the spot market, pointing to elevated trading activity during the ongoing correction.

Macroeconomic developments are creating additional hurdles for XRP as investors reassess the outlook for US monetary policy.

Stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data released last week reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates restrictive for longer or implement another rate increase.

According to CME FedWatch figures, traders are pricing in roughly a 78.7% probability of a December interest rate hike, up from 72.8% before the employment report.

XRP price forecast: Bears eye the psychological $1 support

XRP’s technical outlook remains bearish as the cryptocurrency trades well below its major moving averages.

At the time of writing on Monday, XRP is changing hands near $1.097, following a sharp weekly decline that has left buyers struggling to regain control.

The cryptocurrency remains below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are clustered between $1.302 and $1.360.

This forms a significant resistance zone, suggesting that any meaningful recovery could face substantial selling pressure.

Momentum indicators also point to continued weakness. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 26, putting XRP firmly in oversold territory.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative, reinforcing the prevailing bearish momentum.

With XRP trading near recent lows, sellers could attempt another push toward the psychological $1 support level.

A decisive breakdown below that threshold would represent a major technical setback and could invite further selling, though additional support levels would need to be established.

Despite the prevailing bearish conditions, XRP could stage a temporary rebound if buyers capitalize on oversold momentum readings.

The first important resistance level stands at $1.160, which bulls must reclaim to start an initial recovery.

A sustained move above that barrier could open the door for a broader advance toward $1.300, where stronger selling interest may appear.

Beyond this level, XRP faces additional resistance from the 50-day EMA at $1.302 and the 100-day EMA at $1.307.

The 200-day EMA at $1.360 represents another major hurdle that buyers would need to overcome before the broader technical outlook begins to improve.