Anthropic pushes ahead with IPO amid AI stock rout

The upcoming Anthropic IPO will reveal whether investor appetite for AI risk has withstood the recent downturn. A valuation range close to $1.5 trillion would indicate strong institutional backing and potentially stabilise AI-related stocks on the Nasdaq. Conversely, a significantly lower range or a postponement would suggest a sector-wide valuation correction. Additionally, the large offering could draw funds from portfolios already holding major tech stocks, creating short-term pressure as they rebalance. The filing expected this week—detailing the valuation range, number of shares, and any anchor investors—serves as the next key event.

Anthropic is treating the recent AI decline as a temporary fluctuation rather than a definitive judgment, proceeding with its IPO even as investors negotiate lower valuations.

• According to the WSJ, Anthropic intends to proceed with its IPO this month, with shares expected to begin trading next Thursday or Friday.
• A filing due early this week is anticipated to reveal the valuation range, share count, and price, and might identify anchor investors.
• Previously, investors had anticipated a valuation near $1.5 trillion, but following Thursday’s AI plunge, some are advocating for a lower figure, far below the $2 trillion discussed months ago.
• Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are advising on the valuation range; the shares will trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker "ANT."
• The Nasdaq Composite shed roughly $2.5 trillion in value on Thursday, as the midterm elections empowered AI sceptics and imposed moratoriums on data centres.
• Competitor OpenAI recently secured less than half its intended amount, at a valuation of about $1.25 trillion, while SpaceX’s record June IPO brought in approximately $75 billion.

Anthropic is proceeding with its IPO later this month, undeterred by the severe decline in AI equities, according to the WSJ based on insider sources. The company behind the Claude AI models has scheduled meetings with major investors this week, targeting a Nasdaq listing under the ticker "ANT" next Thursday or Friday.

The valuation has become the primary uncertainty. Anthropic is anticipated to disclose its target range in a filing early this week, which will also specify the number of shares and the price, and may indicate that certain institutional investors have committed to purchase at the IPO price. As of last week, investors anticipated a target of approximately $1.5 trillion. However, following the AI stock slump on Thursday, several large investors are advocating for a lower valuation, the WSJ reports. Anthropic is likely compelled to settle on a figure considerably less than the roughly $2 trillion suggested months earlier.

Anthropic’s leadership has been collaborating with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to determine the appropriate range. This presents a classic dilemma. Setting the range too high could dampen demand, leading to a post-listing decline. Setting it too low could invite criticism for undervaluing the company. Investment banks often prefer a conservative initial range that can be increased if demand proves strong.

The environment for AI stocks has worsened. Nasdaq Composite companies saw roughly $2.5 trillion in market value erased on Thursday, following the US midterm elections that brought a group of AI sceptics to power and enacted moratoriums potentially hindering data centre development. The index has partially rebounded, a factor that likely gave Anthropic confidence to move forward. Even before the election, interest in AI stocks was waning due to concerns about massive spending and unclear returns. Competitor OpenAI secured less than half of its original target in its most recent funding round, at a valuation of approximately $1.25 trillion, below expectations.

Anthropic could still opt to postpone until market conditions stabilise, but the WSJ notes that any delay might trigger market alarm. The benchmark is SpaceX, which in June achieved a record offering of about $75 billion at a valuation close to $1.8 trillion. This week’s filing will indicate how near Anthropic can approach that.