Bitcoin November 2026: The Critical $76k Price Level in Focus

Starting the month of November, bitcoin is fending off a drop below $76,000, the cost basis for short-term holders. The level was maintained following the Binance security breach, which drove BTC down to $76,275, its lowest point in six weeks.

The fallout from the Binance hack resulted in $1.58 billion worth of positions being liquidated, and bitcoin ended October having lost 7% of its value.

Key On-Chain Metrics Show Bitcoin at a Decisive Juncture

According to Glassnode data, the late-October decline featured strong inflows into exchanges. On two distinct days, net deposits hit approximately 11,500 BTC and 8,000 BTC, pointing to selling pressure.

Within days, net outflows of about 40,000 BTC took place, ranking among the year's biggest. These movements, however, are not seen as signs of accumulation.

The 18,270 BTC taken in the hack exited a Binance hot wallet, recorded as an outflow from the exchange. After withdrawals resumed on November 1, users took out roughly $2 billion within a three-hour window.

Across 19 addresses, the hacker's stolen coins have not been moved. Should any be sent to exchanges, it could create new selling pressure.

A more direct signal comes from the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (STH MVRV) ratio. This metric contrasts the current market price against the average cost basis of recent purchasers.

Hovering around 1.02, the ratio indicates short-term holders have roughly a 2% profit. Their cost basis is consequently near $76,000, a price point almost matching the prior week's trough.

Looking at history, falls under the 1.0 mark in 2026 were precursors to capitulation. The breakdowns seen in late January and late May preceded the respective lows of February and June. Conversely, the August recovery triggered a rally up to $87,000.

Since late September, the ratio has recorded diminishing peaks, dropping from 1.20 down to 1.03. Maintaining the $76,000 level ensures recent buyers are in profit, whereas a decline below could prompt loss-making sales.

Technical Analysis Highlights Two Potential Paths for Bitcoin in November

Bitcoin's weekly chart shows it is probing the bull market support band. This band consists of the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), at $76,874, and the 20-week simple moving average (SMA), at $73,779.

The Gaussian channel, however, has remained red since March, pointing to a wider downtrend. BTC was recently turned away at the channel's descending midline, currently around $81,850.

With a reading of 52, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral but has a slight downward lean.

Moving to the daily chart, a bearish signal appears. Following the hack, the Supertrend indicator turned red for the first time since May.

Back in May, that same signal came before a 25% decline to $57,800. If a comparable drop unfolds from the recent flip near $80,000, it would aim at roughly $60,000.

Currently, BTC is managing to hold the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of $77,876. The daily RSI has fallen to 38, prolonging the negative trend in momentum.

Resistance is in the $81,000 to $82,000 range, and a more significant supply zone lies between $85,000 and $87,000. This upper band pushed BTC back on two occasions in late September and early October.

Consequently, the entire outlook for November rests on the $76,000 mark. If it is held and $82,000 is recovered, a route to $87,000 may emerge.

A break below would open up the area between $73,000 and $74,000. The daily 0.382 Fibonacci level, the 20-week SMA, and the weekly 0.236 Fibonacci level are all concentrated in this range.

Should that zone also give way, the decline might continue to the lower band of the Gaussian channel, close to $71,000. A pattern like May's would bring $60,000 into the picture.

Various catalysts could hasten either scenario. The day after the hack, Bitcoin ETFs experienced $643 million in outflows. Adding another level of unpredictability are the US midterms taking place on November 3.