Axios: CIA's Ratcliffe urges Trump to stick with 'no war, no deal' line on Iran

Seen through an oil lens, the guidance implies a drawn-out stalemate instead of a settlement. Iranian supply therefore stays curtailed, with little chance of an agreement soon that would put barrels back on the market. In theory, the “no war” half of the formula caps the tail risk of an all-out conflict that might choke shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the reports of blasts on Qeshm Island, along with claims of limited US strikes, indicate that low-level military friction persists. Ratcliffe’s further point — that economic pain might spark unrest — is a risk harder to price, because turmoil inside Iran could itself endanger output and exports. On balance, crude looks set to keep a geopolitical risk premium rather than gain or lose one sharply.

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Earlier:

• Israeli TV cites US strike as up to six blasts are reported near Iran’s Qeshm Island

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According to reports, the CIA director is urging Trump to let economic pressure carry the burden on Iran, wagering that lasting pain will yield either concessions or upheaval.

Summary:

• According to sources cited by Axios, CIA Director John Ratcliffe is urging President Donald Trump to stick with a “no war, no deal” approach toward Iran
• Ratcliffe’s preference is to let the economic pressure campaign against Iran run on
• He has told Trump that drawn-out economic pain will move Iran toward offering more concessions
• Or, he argues, it might stir enough instability within Iran to set off a popular revolt
• News of the advice broke on the same day as unconfirmed accounts of blasts on Iran’s Qeshm Island and a reported US strike against an air defense system located there

Sources cited by Axios reporter Barak Ravid say CIA Director John Ratcliffe is telling President Donald Trump to hold to the existing “no war, no deal” stance on Iran and let the economic pressure on Tehran keep running.

Sustained economic pain will lead Iran to offer more concessions, Ratcliffe has told Trump, according to the report. Or, in his view, it could generate enough instability inside the country to prompt citizens to revolt. This is advice to the president rather than a confirmed policy decision, and the report gave no indication of how Trump has responded.

Under that approach, Washington would neither escalate into a broader military campaign nor chase a negotiated settlement. It would instead lean on the pressure already in place to move Tehran’s position over time.

The report lands as tension in the Gulf rises again. Iranian state news agency IRNA said earlier on Monday that several explosions had occurred on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, with the cause unclear. Israeli broadcaster N12, for its part, reported that a US strike hit an air defense system on the island, describing it as one of limited operations the US has carried out in recent weeks without formal announcement. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also claimed to have shot down a US drone over the strait. Officially, none of those reports has been confirmed.

Read as a whole, the accounts suggest that the “no war” status quo is not devoid of military friction, even though it falls short of open conflict.

As far as energy markets go, the guidance implies a drawn-out standoff rather than any breakthrough soon. Whether Trump takes up Ratcliffe’s recommendation is the first open question; the second is how Tehran answers continued pressure — with concessions, with escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, or with mounting strain at home.