Bitcoin Enters US Midterm Week Under Heavy Pressure

America's midterm elections arrive at a difficult moment for bitcoin. Institutional investors are pulling money out, short-sellers are betting on further losses, and the largest crypto exchange is still dealing with the aftermath of a $6.3 billion hack.

The November 3 vote now threatens to inject even more uncertainty into a market that was already skittish.

On October 30 bitcoin briefly traded below $77,000 before climbing back above $78,000 by Monday. Ethereum staged a similar rebound, rising from $2,200 to roughly $2,287. The bounce did little to hide the underlying fragility.

Weekly ETF flows flipped back under pressure. BTC reversed from a $301.2M inflow to a $202.4M outflow, while ETH outflows widened from $220.7M to $431.4M. — Bitunix (@BitunixOfficial) November 2, 2026

Wall Street Sends a Cautionary Signal

US spot bitcoin ETFs shed $643.2 million on October 30, wiping out all the inflows recorded over the preceding four trading sessions.

The full week closed with roughly $202 million in net outflows. Ethereum funds experienced a more persistent selloff, losing $431.4 million across five consecutive trading days.

The latest data underscores worries that institutional demand has been insufficient to sustain bitcoin above $80,000.

At the same time, bitcoin's estimated average on-chain cost basis rose to $74,800. That leaves a slim gap between current trading levels and the average acquisition price calculated by that method.

Major traders are preparing for turbulence. As of October 29, analysts at Bitunix had identified a $201 million leveraged short position on bitcoin open on Hyperliquid, a clear sign of a substantial bearish bet placed ahead of election week.

Election Outcome May Steer Crypto's Course

The midterms will decide which party controls Congress, potentially shaping the trajectory of the CLARITY Act, Washington's proposed regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.

The bill stalled in the Senate in September. A shift in congressional power could alter its path, though the legislation already faces divisions that run deeper than a simple partisan split.

Investors are also monitoring the aftermath of the Binance hack. Customers pulled a net $3.64 billion from the exchange after the incident. The exchange says outflows are stabilizing and that roughly 95% of the stolen assets have been made good with its own funds.

Well, that wasn't the Uptober we were hoping for! Only 2 of the top 20 cryptocurrencies ended October in the green: $XMR (+9.99%) and $LEO (+4.07%). $RAIN took the biggest hit, falling 48.47%, followed by $XLM (25.12%). $BTC dropped 7.30%, while $ETH fell 16.04%. — BeInCrypto (@beincrypto) November 1, 2026

Two Price Levels Now Demand Attention

The immediate challenge is whether bitcoin can reclaim $80,000 and attract new ETF inflows.

A dip back below $77,000 could refocus attention on the $74,800 cost-basis zone that Bitunix has flagged.

Election results are approaching and confidence remains fragile. Bitcoin enters the week facing a difficult question: can political clarity revive buying interest at a time when institutional capital is already moving to the exit?