Bitcoin Struggles at $80,000 as Sellers Fade and Spot Demand Lags

After falling back beneath $80,000, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $78,257, a level analysts say must be broken before liquidity can return. On-chain metrics point to reduced selling pressure, but no fresh spot buyers have shown up.

The rise has been driven more by sellers stepping back than by fresh buying. The rebound has been led by futures traders, with spot flows remaining neutral.

Sellers Pull Back as Holders Stop Booking Losses

Most holders have ceased selling at a loss; Net Realized Profit and Loss has returned to positive ground, and Long-Term Holder SOPR is at 1.2.

XWIN Japan also pointed out that accumulation addresses hold roughly 2.3 million BTC. As Bitcoin neared $80,000, depositors showed little urgency to shift coins to exchanges.

Hedge funds reached the same conclusion and pared short exposure. That foundation was then tested by macro pressure.

August payrolls came in at 162,000 versus a 53,000 consensus, lifting September rate-hike odds to near 60%.

Wintermute notes that Bitcoin nonetheless finished the week 3.45% higher, even though a hawkish repricing normally pulls crypto down together with equities.

Thin Spot Demand and Exchange Liquidity Persist for Bitcoin

Even with the recovery, spot demand has not yet offered the same confirmation. The 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for spot markets is still neutral. Futures buyers have instead led the rebound, according to analyst Darkfost.

Liquidity conditions are mixed as well. Binance's stablecoin reserves peaked above $50 billion in this cycle, then declined by nearly $7 billion. Over the past month, however, $1.6 billion has come back into reserves.

The 90-day change in Binance's stablecoin market cap has also strengthened, moving from -17% to -1.6%. Darkfost calls the recovery genuine but too slow to sustain the rally by itself.

“While this is a positive development in the short term, it’s still sluggish and needs more strength behind it to be considered truly meaningful,” Darkfost said.

Institutional demand supplies a stronger source of support. US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) took in $986.9 million in the week ending September 4.

That made three consecutive weeks of ETF inflows and brought the total over that period to roughly $3.8 billion.

Still, ETF demand may not translate into instant buying on open spot markets. A negative Coinbase Premium and elevated whale deposit ratios are still caution flags.

XWIN Japan thus regards a sustained break above $80,000 alongside stronger spot demand as the clearest confirmation of a bullish turn.

“A clean break above the $80 000 level should be the key to fully opening the door for liquidity to return for good,” Darkfost added.

The next tests are close at hand. US CPI data arrives September 11, followed by the Federal Reserve's September 15–16 meeting. The two releases will test whether sellers hold off.