Bitcoin Withstood a Record $6.3B Hack: 3 Bull-Market Signs

The largest crypto breach ever recorded struck Binance last week, yet Bitcoin’s (BTC) price data show little evidence that the bull market has broken.

Three signals, from the weekly close to monthly momentum, point in that direction. One group of investors still has grounds for caution ahead of the US midterm elections.

1. A Record-Size Breach Met a Shallow Weekly Loss

Around $6.3 billion was extracted from 10 blockchains in the October 29 attack on Binance. The exchange promised to cover every loss and began phased withdrawals on November 1.

Even so, Bitcoin ended the week just 2.9% lower, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo. Gold fell 3% across the same stretch, per Woo’s numbers.

Woo contrasted that with the FTX collapse, which pushed Bitcoin down 25% during the 2022 bear market. A decline of that magnitude did not show up this time.

“BTC is in a bull market,” Woo said.

“Here’s the difference between 4 weeks of downside in a bull market vs. a bear market.

Conclusion: We’re in a bull market.”

— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover), November 2, 2026

Ash Crypto likewise contends that a 20% decline is ordinary in the course of a Bitcoin bull market. The loss that week remained well under that level.

Bitcoin’s longer-term price picture points the same way.

2. Bitcoin Keeps Posting Weekly Closes Above the 50-Week Average

Ash Crypto noted that Bitcoin has now logged a 7th consecutive weekly close above the 50-week moving average (MA).

The run began in September, when Bitcoin regained that average for the first time in 45 weeks. Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, connected the move back above the average with past cycle bottoms.

“Regaining the 50w MA has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are ‘in,’” he said.

BeInCrypto Markets placed Bitcoin at $78,307 at press time, up 0.65% over 24 hours. That leaves the price roughly 3.6% above the 50-week MA, which is near $75,602.

A third reading comes from a slower monthly gauge.

3. Monthly Momentum Survived a Downbeat October

Coinglass figures show Bitcoin gained about 43% across July, August, and September. It then closed October with a 7.32% drop, the first losing month since June.

That decline still kept monthly momentum above a key threshold, analyst PlanB says. He puts the 14-month relative strength index (RSI) above 50 for a 3rd straight month.

The RSI runs from 0 to 100 and tracks momentum. Readings above 50 mean gains have exceeded losses over the lookback period. PlanB interprets the streak as the beginning of a fresh bull market.

Still, Bitcoin ETF outflows tell a weaker story than the price data.

ETF Investors Are Still in the Red

On October 30, the first full session after the hack, US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.33 million. The selling wiped out four days of inflows and put the week about $202 million in the red.

Glassnode places the average cost basis for US spot ETF holders near $82,308. With Bitcoin about 4.9% below that line, the typical ETF buyer is at a loss.

Per Coinglass, Bitcoin is still 10.4% under its January 1 mark. These levels set up the next hurdle, which arrives with the midterm vote.

What November May Hold Once the Midterm Vote Is Over

On November 3, Americans will cast ballots in the midterms. Coinglass data show Bitcoin closing November higher in 10 of 16 years, with a median gain of 10.3%.

Midterm years are divided down the middle, though: two Novembers produced gains and two produced losses. The down years were 2018 and 2022, when Bitcoin fell 36.41% and 16.23%. In both cases, the market was in a bear phase.

Should Bitcoin finish a week above the 50-week MA once the election is over, 2026 could be set apart from those earlier years. Climbing back above $82,308 would put the typical ETF holder back into profit. In Ash Crypto’s monthly take, $87,500 stands as resistance.