Cardano at risk of more losses as whale holdings shrink

Key takeaways

• ADA is trading below $0.20 on Monday after a 21% decline in October, with support near $0.1894.
• Large investors with between 10 million and 100 million ADA have cut their share of circulating supply from 38.03% to 37.45%.
• Technical signals stay bearish, and a drop under $0.1894 could open the way to $0.1712 and $0.1537.

Cardano (ADA) is finding it hard to regain ground on Monday, changing hands under $0.20 after October knocked 21% off its price.

The digital asset has held above the support level of $0.1894, but falling whale positions and weaker derivatives activity point to lingering reluctance among buyers.

ADA has traded in a fairly tight range since Thursday's near-8% drop, though there are few signs of a meaningful rebound.

Santiment on-chain figures show that big Cardano investors have trimmed their positions over the past month, while CoinGlass data indicate a marked drop in futures Open Interest.

Interestingly, Cardano is drawing more social media attention even as market activity remains subdued. Whether that attention turns into renewed buying demand is unclear.

Cardano whale holdings drop despite rising social interest

Online attention around Cardano has climbed sharply after reports that neither ADA nor tokens linked to Midnight were taken in the recent Binance hack.

According to Santiment, Cardano's social dominance hit 2.49% on Monday, the highest since late June.

Social dominance tracks how often an asset is mentioned in crypto discussions compared with other digital currencies. A higher reading typically signals that more traders and investors are talking about the coin.

Yet the increased visibility has not translated into stronger buying by Cardano's biggest holders.

Santiment data indicate that wallets with between 10 million and 100 million ADA now control about 37.45% of the circulating supply, down from 38.03% a month ago.

The reduction suggests that some large investors have been lowering their exposure rather than accumulating more tokens during the recent price decline.

Whale activity is monitored closely because big holders can affect market liquidity and price moves, especially when broader demand is already soft.

Cardano's supply in profit has also dropped steeply, from 28.36% to 14.77%. That means a much smaller portion of the circulating supply is now held at a profit, reflecting the impact of ADA's latest slide. The metric alone, however, does not show how much of the change was driven by profit-taking.

If large holders keep trimming their positions, Cardano could find it difficult to bounce back from October's losses.

The weakness in Cardano's spot market is also visible in its derivatives activity. Data from CoinGlass show that ADA futures Open Interest has fallen to roughly $419 million, compared with $450 million last week.

That is a drop of about 11%, indicating that traders have been closing positions faster than new contracts are being opened.

Open Interest measures the total number of outstanding futures contracts that have not yet been settled or closed.

A decline in Open Interest often points to reduced market participation or a broader unwinding of leveraged positions.

In Cardano's case, the contraction comes alongside falling prices and shrinking whale holdings, suggesting that traders remain cautious about entering new positions.

The mix of weakening derivatives activity and reduced accumulation by large holders leaves ADA without a clear source of buying momentum.

A sustained recovery in Open Interest, combined with firmer prices, could offer an early sign that traders are becoming more willing to take risks.

Cardano price prediction: ADA faces bearish pressure below $0.20

Cardano continues to trade below the psychological $0.20 mark on Monday, with its daily chart showing that sellers are still in charge.

ADA is trading under its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $0.2179 and its 200-day EMA of $0.2408.

Both moving averages are acting as overhead resistance, making it tough for buyers to mount a sustained recovery.

Cardano has also fallen below a previously rising support trendline near $0.2019.

That breakdown matters because a former support level can turn into resistance once the price drops beneath it.

Unless ADA can climb back above the trendline, further recovery attempts could attract fresh selling pressure.

Momentum indicators offer little hope for buyers. The daily relative strength index (RSI) is hovering near 31, approaching the oversold threshold of 30.

Although an RSI close to oversold territory can sometimes precede a short-term bounce, it also reflects the force of the recent selling.

At the same time, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) remains below zero, reinforcing the bearish momentum visible on the daily chart.

Together, the indicators point to ADA not yet having established a convincing bullish reversal.

The immediate focus for Cardano traders is the $0.1894 support level, which matches the August 30 low.

ADA has managed to defend that area despite its recent losses, but another round of selling could put the level under strain.

A firm daily close below $0.1894 would weaken the short-term technical picture and could open the way for a drop to $0.1712, the August 18 low.

If sellers stay in control, the next key support sits around $0.1537, a level last tested on July 27.

A move toward that area would represent a significant extension of Cardano's October decline.

On the upside, buyers first need to push ADA back above the broken trendline near $0.2019 to brighten the near-term outlook.

A sustained move above that level could let the cryptocurrency take aim at its 50-day EMA of $0.2179.

Beyond that, the 200-day EMA at $0.2408 remains a bigger hurdle for a broader recovery.

Until ADA reclaims these resistance levels, the technical outlook is likely to stay tilted to the downside.