Bitwise Sees Bitcoin at $1.6 Million by 2036; Gold's Store-of-Value Role Is Key

Bitcoin (BTC) will be worth $1.6 million in 2036, in Bitwise's view, about 19 times its $83,557 starting point. Much of that projected value rests on BTC taking a quarter of the store-of-value market shared with gold.

Within the model, the store-of-value category contributes roughly $27.5 trillion of the $33.6 trillion total, about 82% of the 2036 valuation Bitwise assigns to Bitcoin. That makes this assumption the biggest source of exposure in the forecast.

The Share of Gold's Market Bitwise Needs Bitcoin to Win

A total addressable market model underpins the projection. Bitwise measures every market BTC might serve, applies a rate of penetration, and splits the result across all 21 million coins.

The combined gold and Bitcoin market, the firm expects, will grow from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036; 25% of that pool goes to Bitcoin in its base case.

At the starting price, the 20.1 million bitcoins currently circulating are worth about $1.7 trillion, close to 5% of the $31.1 trillion market today.

Only about $6 trillion comes from the six other markets modeled, including institutional portfolios and national treasury reserves.

Bitwise also notes a tightening relationship between Bitcoin and gold. On September 11, the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold hit a record 0.58.

“We would expect this relationship to persist and deepen over time as awareness of bitcoin’s store-of-value properties continues to grow,” the report said.

For the next decade, the model assumes a 0.21 correlation with gold, higher than the 0.11 average recorded over the prior 10 years.

Bitcoin is better positioned today than at any point in its past. We're boosting our 10-year bitcoin target from $1.3m to $1.6m. https://t.co/oQG2kKXbvo

— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) October 28, 2026

How Much the Target Shrinks if Gold Holds Its Ground

The bear case cuts the store-of-value weighting to 2.5%, with every other market set at zero. The result is a 2036 price of $130,686, or a 4.6% yearly return.

Bitcoin changed hands at $79,902, down 1.12% in the past day.

Even taken alone, Bitwise's base case is well above JPMorgan's 2036 Bitcoin scenarios, which assume 10% annual base-case returns. Bitwise's base case translates to 34.3%. Jim Cramer said this month that he still prefers gold to Bitcoin for portfolio insurance.

Quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances and regulatory reversal are cited by Bitwise as key risks. Yet the model's biggest variable is how much of gold's role Bitcoin absorbs by 2036.