BofA forecasts memory chip boom may extend past 2028 without downturn

A recent call supports the view that memory — especially HBM — remains among the strongest earnings drivers in the AI supply chain, which benefits memory makers and chip equipment suppliers following the recent tech sell-off. Investors face a key risk in the gap between TrendForce's and BofA's price assumptions: if BofA's scenario of an earlier correction plays out, 2027 earnings forecasts across the sector may need to be lowered. Long-term supply agreements that reduce volatility beyond 2028 would challenge the industry's usual boom-bust pattern and could support higher valuation multiples. The outlook also aligns with recent notes from UBS and SoftBank, which highlighted data centre power and policy as constraints on the AI build-out.

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TrendForce and BofA both see the memory boom continuing, but their price outlooks diverge sharply, and that gap is where the risk resides.

Summary:

• BofA believes the memory upcycle could persist through 2027 and avoid a 2028 downturn, citing TrendForce's Avril Wu
• Wu projects Q4 DRAM and HBM prices rising 10% to 20% quarter on quarter, and NAND climbing 8% to 13%
• She expects HBM prices to more than double in 2027, with long-term supply deals dampening volatility beyond 2028
• BofA is more cautious: Q4 DRAM up 8%, NAND up 3%, HBM gains in 2027 under 50%, and corrections possibly starting earlier that year
• BofA forecasts memory industry revenue of $970 billion in 2026, $1.47 trillion in 2027 and $1.58 trillion in 2028

The current upcycle in the memory chip industry could extend through 2027 and sidestep a downturn in 2028, according to Bank of America, which cited remarks made by TrendForce's Avril Wu during a BofA-hosted webcast on November 10.

Wu indicated that memory prices were likely to continue rising. She expects DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) prices to increase 10% to 20% in the fourth quarter of 2026 versus the prior quarter, while NAND flash prices advance 8% to 13%. Looking ahead, she forecasts HBM prices more than doubling in 2027. She also noted that long-term supply agreements between chipmakers and customers could help moderate price fluctuations beyond 2028.

BofA largely agrees with the bullish outlook but takes a more cautious stance on pricing. The bank forecasts fourth-quarter DRAM prices rising 8% quarter on quarter and NAND prices 3%, both significantly below TrendForce's projections. It also anticipates HBM price increases in 2027 remaining under 50%, far below the doubling Wu expects, and warns that price corrections could start earlier in 2027.

Even under those more conservative assumptions, BofA's figures point to a remarkable run. The bank projects global memory industry revenue of $970 billion in 2026, climbing to $1.47 trillion in 2027 and $1.58 trillion in 2028. That path suggests the industry could sustain record revenue and earnings through 2028, rather than falling into the kind of slump that has followed previous memory booms.

The debate is significant because memory has become one of the most critical links in the AI supply chain. HBM is stacked alongside AI processors to feed them data at high speed, making it central to the construction of AI data centres, and its pricing power has been a major earnings driver across the sector. The divergence between TrendForce's and BofA's assumptions highlights how much uncertainty remains about how long that pricing power will last.

TrendForce, a Taipei-based market intelligence firm, tracks the global technology supply chain with a special focus on semiconductors, memory and displays. Its DRAMeXchange unit is one of the most widely referenced sources for DRAM and NAND contract and spot pricing.