Goldman: state pauses may stall 45% of planned US data centre capacity, briefly

For investors trying to make sense of Wednesday's slide in AI infrastructure stocks, the Goldman note offers a framework: this is a timing story rather than a demand collapse, so further downside may be limited if the pauses prove brief. Moving some spending into 2027 could support near-term orders for chipmakers and power-equipment suppliers, including Asian manufacturers connected to the buildout. Companies that have already secured power and permits may gain relative value as approval times lengthen. The main risk to that view is that the pauses run longer than expected, shifting the damage from timing to capacity.

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To Goldman, the political resistance to data centres is a temporary obstacle for the AI buildout, and perhaps a reason to construct more quickly before that resistance arrives.

Summary:

• Goldman puts about 45% of planned US capacity in states likely to tighten data centre rules
• It expects temporary pauses in Texas, Georgia and Michigan while lawmakers weigh rules on power, water and tax breaks
• Texas alone holds roughly a quarter of planned capacity
• Goldman sees the curbs as short-lived since data centres are not a top voter priority
• Rich Privorotsky raised the possibility that companies pull spending into 2027 to beat new rules
• The note follows Wednesday's sharp fall in US AI infrastructure stocks

States expected to tighten data centre rules cover about 45% of planned US capacity, in Goldman's view — an extra risk for the AI infrastructure buildout after Democratic gains in this week's elections, even though the bank expects any restrictions to be temporary.

The bank's economists see Democrats in Texas, Georgia and Michigan imposing short-term pauses on new data centre projects while legislators consider stricter rules on electricity use, water consumption and tax incentives, according to reports of the note. Texas is the most significant of the three, holding about a quarter of planned US capacity by itself.

Goldman doubts the curbs will last long, arguing that voters do not rank data centres as a top priority and that political pressure is likely to ease once new frameworks are in place. The risk is therefore about timing, not a lasting loss of capacity.

The timing effect could also run the other way. Goldman strategist Rich Privorotsky suggested some companies might shift spending into 2027 to get projects moving before new rules take effect, offering near-term investment support even as the medium-term pipeline slips.

The warning arrives during a sharp reassessment of the sector. Wednesday saw US AI infrastructure stocks fall even as the broader market rallied; other analysts have moved quickly to gauge the exposure, with one estimate putting more than 13 gigawatts of announced Texas projects at risk. Several research houses have also lowered price targets on companies that had been shifting toward hosting AI workloads.

Goldman's focus on state-level decisions mirrors a theme in much of this week's research. UBS also said state governments matter more for data centre projects than the shift in control of Congress, while raising its AI capital spending forecasts.

Where this matters globally is the supply chain. Orders for chips, power equipment and cooling systems around the world depend on US data centre construction, so either delays or a pull-forward in American projects would ripple through suppliers well beyond the country's borders. What happens next depends on how fast states act and on whether the stoppages last no longer than Goldman anticipates.