Canada's September trade surplus hits C$5.35 billion vs C$4.1 billion forecast

• Previous month: +4.2B

September's Canadian trade data, in detail:

• The merchandise trade balance came in at a C$5.4 billion surplus. The prior reading was a C$4.95 billion surplus, revised from C$4.20 billion.

• Exports rose 0.2% month over month to C$78.6 billion, against C$78.41 billion before. The previous month had shown +3.2%.

• Imports fell 0.3% month over month to C$73.71 billion, compared with C$73.46 billion earlier. The prior month was -2.2%.

• Export volumes dropped 4.0% month over month.

• Import volumes slipped 2.5% month over month.

• The trade surplus with the United States was C$12.3 billion, versus C$12.1 billion previously.

• August exports were revised to C$78.4 billion from C$77.9 billion; imports were revised to C$73.5 billion from C$73.7 billion.

Statistics Canada said the merchandise trade surplus widened to C$5.4 billion in September from C$5.0 billion in August. Exports ticked up while imports fell, but the breakdown was uneven. Oil and gold underpinned the headline gain in exports, even as export volumes dropped sharply.

Energy exports rose 8.2%, with crude oil and bitumen up 10.2%, largely reflecting higher prices. Metal and non-metallic mineral exports gained 8.6%, helped by gold. Eight of the 11 export categories decreased, however. Excluding energy, metal and non-metallic mineral products, exports were down 5.6%.

On the import side, motor vehicles and parts declined 9.1%, after a 9.3% drop in August. A 29.4% increase in computer and peripheral imports partly offset that weakness, driven mainly by processing units for data centres coming from the United States.

In short, the surplus looked better, but the export details take some shine off the number. Commodity prices helped lift export proceeds while volumes fell. Export volumes were also down 0.6% in the third quarter, with import volumes off 1.6%. That suggests a softer underlying activity signal for the Bank of Canada than the nominal surplus alone would imply. A wider surplus would typically support the Canadian dollar and weigh on USDCAD, though broad export weakness could blunt that support.

What this report covers: Canada's monthly merchandise trade report measures goods exported to and imported from other countries. Exports exceeding imports yields a surplus. Traders watch both dollar values and inflation-adjusted volumes, as higher prices can boost trade values without more goods being shipped.

Data: Statistics Canada, November 4, 2026; international merchandise trade table.

The USDCAD is hovering near the session's lows.

The pair is around session lows, helped by the dollar's broad slide after the US election. Technically, the price has moved below the swing area running from 1.3936 to 1.3963 and has also broken under the 61.8% retracement at 1.39497. That swing zone now represents nearby risk for traders. While below it, the outlook is more bearish. On the downside, the 200-day moving average at 1.38919 is the next objective. A fall through that moving average would add to the bearish view.

On a break above 1.3963, sellers could give way to buyers and aim for the 50% retracement at 1.40162. Late yesterday, price tested that retracement before running into sellers.