US trade deficit narrows to $105.0B in September, below forecasts

The US international trade deficit came in at $105.0 billion for September, narrower than the $108.0 billion that economists had predicted.

• The prior month's reading was revised to -$105.6 billion
• Goods trade stood at -$135.0 billion, compared with a preliminary figure of -$134.9 billion
• The deficit with China widened to -$21.87 billion from -$18.4 billion previously
• Exports totalled $321.51 billion, up from $315.67 billion a month earlier

Imports of capital goods, considered a proxy for AI investment, rose to $157.97 billion versus $146.41 billion in the prior period. That level is expected to remain elevated as long as the current expansion phase continues.

The US international trade report is compiled by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, released at 8:30 am Eastern time roughly five weeks after the reference month ends. It offers a comprehensive view of US trade, incorporating services and detailed category breakdowns that go beyond the advance goods figures published about a week earlier.

The headline number represents the combined goods and services trade balance. The US records a substantial goods shortfall, partly balanced by a surplus in services such as travel, financial services, intellectual property charges and business services. The goods figures are calculated on a balance of payments basis, which adjusts Census data for coverage and timing, causing slight differences from the advance estimates.

The report provides export and import data broken down by end-use category, along with bilateral balances for major trading partners including China, Mexico, Canada, the European Union, Japan and Vietnam. Those country-level numbers have become politically sensitive, as bilateral deficits play a prominent role in tariff policy and trade discussions.

For GDP calculations, the key metric is real goods trade adjusted for inflation, which feeds into the net exports component. Revisions to the advance goods data and the inclusion of services can alter growth forecasts.

Trade has been among the most volatile segments of the US economy in recent years. Episodes of tariff front-running followed by pullbacks have generated record swings in imports and the deficit. Large movements of nonmonetary gold have added additional volatility. The release rarely moves currency markets on its own, but it is essential for monitoring how tariffs are reshaping supply chains and trade relationships. Statistics Canada frequently publishes its monthly trade figures at the same time.