China's oil demand to accelerate, Vitol CEO says, calling current gap unsustainable

Hardy's remarks are significant because Vitol is one of the largest independent oil traders, giving it direct insight into physical flows. The most market-relevant point is his call on China demand: describing the current 5-6 million barrel per day difference between China's 2025 and 2026 crude imports as unsustainable, he implies Vitol expects Chinese buying to pick up. That is a bullish signal for crude demand, even as Hardy also notes a 1.5 million barrel per day drop in global demand for the year. The Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz figures are important for supply, showing how much Middle East flow is still at risk from the conflict. Roughly 10 million barrels per day of oil and products still pass through Hormuz, and 2-3 million barrels per day of Saudi exports are affected via the Mandeb strait. Together, these points reinforce a market view of constrained supply chains meeting demand that could reaccelerate from China, even as global consumption weakens.

--

Vitol's CEO portrays a market in which Middle East barrels are becoming more difficult to transport, while Chinese purchases still have room to increase.

Summary of key points:

• Speaking at the APPEC conference in Singapore, Vitol CEO Russell Hardy stated that China's oil-import demand is poised to increase.
• He described the 5-6 million barrels per day difference between China's 2025 and 2026 crude imports as unsustainable.
• Hardy noted that disruptions in the Bab el-Mandeb strait have impacted 2-3 million barrels per day of Saudi oil exports.
• He estimated that roughly 10 million barrels per day of crude and products are still being exported from the Middle East, and a comparable volume of oil and products continues to exit the Strait of Hormuz.
• Hardy expects global oil demand to decline by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026 compared to 2025.
• He said global product inventories are still decreasing, and that Russia imported between 500,000 and 600,000 tons of gasoline per month over the summer.
• Vitol is the largest independent energy trading company in the world, handling crude oil, refined products, and other commodities across global markets, which gives its executives an unusually direct insight into physical trade flows.

At the APPEC energy conference in Singapore, Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said China's oil-import demand is due to increase. He described the 5-6 million barrel per day gap between China's 2025 and 2026 crude imports as unsustainable, which means he expects Chinese buying to accelerate from current levels. This comment contrasts with a broader demand picture that Hardy characterized as softer, projecting global oil demand to fall by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026 versus 2025.

Turning to supply, Hardy detailed the ongoing disruption in Middle East shipping lanes. The Bab el-Mandeb strait disruptions have affected 2-3 million barrels per day of Saudi oil exports, he said. Approximately 10 million barrels per day of crude and products are still being exported from the Middle East overall, and a similar volume of oil and products continues to exit the Strait of Hormuz despite the conflict. Hardy also pointed out that global product inventories are still declining, indicating that consumption of refined products is still exceeding supply despite disrupted crude flows. Regarding Russia, he said the country imported between 500,000 and 600,000 tons of gasoline per month over the summer.

Vitol, the largest independent energy trading company globally, buys, sells, and transports crude oil, refined products, natural gas, and other commodities across markets, rather than producing or refining them. It is privately held, with headquarters in Geneva and Rotterdam. The firm trades several million barrels of oil equivalent per day, providing its executives, including Hardy, with an unusually direct perspective on physical trade flows, freight patterns, and regional demand shifts. This insight often appears in market-moving commentary at conferences like APPEC.