Cowen Lays Out Path for Bitcoin to $58,000 as Nasdaq Slumps

Cryptocurrency analyst Ben Cowen noted that the Nasdaq Composite has given back all the ground it picked up after the midterm elections. In his view, a retreat to the index’s summer trough could send Bitcoin (BTC) down to $58,000.

That level is close to the low Bitcoin reached in June, which was the weakest point of 2026, so another test of that level would wipe out every gain from its recovery.

Is Ben Cowen’s 2018 Parallel Still Valid?

Cowen looked at 2018, when the S&P 500 rose 2.1% the day after the midterms. He says three developments in that year pulled equities down into December.

“If the NASDAQ can go back to the summer lows, then so can Bitcoin.”

— Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen), November 5, 2026

First, in October 2018, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said rates were still far from the neutral level. CNBC attributed the S&P 500’s worst month since 2011 to that comment.

In parallel, Cowen says the market is pricing two more interest-rate increases even after the slump in technology shares.

Second, Caterpillar, 3M and Ford flagged tariff-related cost pressure in October of that year, according to Bloomberg.

From that, Cowen argues current tariffs are adding to inflation and are keeping the Fed tilted toward tighter policy.

Third, Cowen says technology shares turned down in late 2018 amid regulatory scrutiny of large platforms. His view is that concern over AI is filling that role now.

On Thursday, ABC reported the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished about 1,800 points lower. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, slipped into correction territory, meaning it had fallen at least 10% from its high.

Could Bitcoin Sidestep the Nasdaq’s Slide?

Cowen tied the two markets together in a subsequent post.

“If the NASDAQ can go back to the summer lows, then so can Bitcoin.”

Cowen wrote that on X.

Bitcoin has dropped in step with large technology names before. An earlier selloff among Big Tech dragged it toward $62,000 in June.

Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson, by contrast, views any midterm dip as a buying opportunity, an earlier Q4 report noted.

The comparison could fall apart, however, if the Fed takes a softer line. Powell adopted a dovish stance in late November 2018.

Jeffrey Rosenberg, managing director at BlackRock, says Fed Chair Kevin Warsh associates tighter financial conditions with AI. The central bank left rates at 3.75% to 4% last week.