US Government Shifted $1B in Bitcoin β Is a Sell-Off Coming?
The US government moved about $1.01 billion in Bitcoin on October 8, raising sell-off concerns. No exchange destination has been confirmed.
Nearly $18 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today, one of the largest quarterly settlements.
Crypto options contracts valued at nearly $18 billion for Bitcoin and Ethereum are set to expire today, marking one of the year's biggest quarterly settlements. While an options expiry does not guarantee upward or downward movement for Bitcoin or Ethereum, major settlements can temporarily shift liquidity and hedging patterns in the market. A grasp of options mechanics can clarify why crypto markets sometimes see unusual price swings and volatility around key expiry dates.
Options are derivative contracts granting traders the right β but not the duty β to purchase or sell an asset at a set price before or when the contract expires. A call option allows the buyer to acquire the underlying asset at a fixed strike price; a put option gives the buyer the ability to sell it.
Take an example: if Bitcoin is at $85,000 and a trader holds a $90,000 call option, the option gains in value if Bitcoin moves above $90,000. If Bitcoin stays below $90,000 come expiry, the option may become worthless. The reverse holds for put options. Traders use these derivatives to bet on price direction, protect current holdings, or trade volatility without direct Bitcoin or Ethereum purchases or sales.
Market makers and dealers often take the opposing side in options trades. To control their risk, they hedge using the underlying asset or futures. That creates a clear link between the options market and spot Bitcoin.
For instance, if dealers hold a short position on many call options and Bitcoin rises, their risk can become more sensitive to further price increases. Dealers might then need to buy Bitcoin to stay hedged. This can set off a feedback cycle where Bitcoin rises, dealer hedging drives extra buying, that buying lifts Bitcoin further, and more hedging becomes necessary.
That is one reason options positioning can intensify price moves near certain strike prices. The effect is often described via gamma, which tracks how swiftly an option's sensitivity to the underlying asset shifts as the price changes.
When options expire, those positions vanish. The linked hedges may then be cut back, closed out, or rolled into later-dated contracts. That can alter the flow of purchases and sales in the underlying market.
Today's expiry carries special weight because roughly $15.9 billion in Bitcoin options and $2.1 billion in Ethereum options are due. The Bitcoin expiry alone accounts for around 37% of Deribit's total Bitcoin open interest.
September's Bitcoin options book is also tilted toward calls, with a put/call open-interest ratio of 0.69. Much of the call exposure clusters around the $85,000, $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000 strikes. With Bitcoin trading near the mid-$80,000s, those positions are increasingly consequential.
Before the expiry, this positioning can affect the market via dealer hedging. If dealers need to buy or sell the underlying asset as Bitcoin passes through key strike prices, those flows can reinforce the ongoing price trend or temporarily lock the market near specific levels.
The impact can spread beyond Bitcoin. Bitcoin remains the biggest and most liquid cryptocurrency, so shifts in BTC volatility and direction can quickly sway broader crypto-market sentiment. Ethereum may see its own options-linked flows, while smaller cryptocurrencies can respond to changes in overall risk appetite.
This matters especially when the options market leans heavily one way. A call-heavy book can fuel upward momentum through dealer hedging as prices climb. Once those calls expire, that mechanical buying support disappears. The same logic works in reverse when the market is packed with puts.
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Disclaimer: this article comes from third-party media and is provided for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Crypto and other financial products carry significant price volatility risk, so please make your own decisions carefully.
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