Elon Musk Backs 2027 AGI Prediction; Traders Remain Skeptical

A viral post predicting that major US labs will reach artificial general intelligence (AGI) in 2027 has been endorsed by Elon Musk. Musk replied with a single word, calling the forecast accurate, and his reply drew 1.8 million views within about 3 hours.

The post comes from X user Dr Singularity, who says Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5 already seems close to AGI. It then contends that Google, OpenAI, SpaceXAI, and others will follow.

Accurate https://t.co/7degp3rj0K

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 28, 2026

Musk’s Endorsement Arrives in a Month Full of AGI Claims

OpenAI President Greg Brockman described the September 3 debut of GPT-6 Astra as a “generational leap” earlier this month.

“Welcome to the AGI era,” he said during the briefing.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang also wrote on X that AGI had arrived. Musk has made a similar claim about his own lab.

On September 14, a user asked Musk how close Grok 4.8 would come to AGI. He answered on X that Grok 5 would mark AGI’s arrival, an exchange BeInCrypto covered at the time.

This newest thread links that contest to power capacity.

“This prediction is based on the amount of compute they already have + additional compute being added all the time….It looks like few GW of compute are enough for strong AGI, now imagine what we will able to do with 10-20GW of compute which are rapidly coming online,” Dr Singularity posted.

Traders Stay Wary of a 2027 AGI Prediction

Prediction markets have not aligned with Musk. Kalshi traders assigned OpenAI roughly a 44.3% chance of announcing AGI before 2028.

For a prediction about this year, confidence falls further. Polymarket traders gave OpenAI an 18% chance of announcing AGI before 2027, while Kalshi’s pricing came in at 14.8%.

The group behind the benchmark OpenAI presented at launch is equally cautious. Mike Knoop, who co-founded Zapier and ARC Prize, described Astra’s result as a large leap but said the evidence for AGI was still lacking.

Warnings Target the Pace of the AGI Race

The labs chasing AGI are, at the same time, among those sounding alarms about it. OpenAI chief scientist Jakub Pachocki wrote in a September 6 essay that no lab had yet solved alignment and monitoring to a sufficient degree.

“I am concerned no one is prepared for the consequences of a continued rapid rise in machine intelligence,” he said.

Jerome Glenn serves as chair of the AGI Panel at the UN Council of Presidents of the General Assembly. Without government regulation of the AGI transition, he argued, humans could lose control to machine intelligence.

“AGI could enable some states and malicious non-state actors to build chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons. Moreover, large AGI-controlled swarms of lethal autonomous weapons could themselves constitute a new category of WMDs,” he added.

Others are not convinced the race leads to AGI at all. Turing Award winner Yann LeCun, who co-founded AI startup AMI Labs, is among the skeptics. On September 20, he argued on X that autoregressive LLMs by themselves would not reach human-level AI.

Had that been achievable, consumers would already own household robots and Level-4 or Level-5 self-driving cars, he argued.