Ethereum regains $2,300 under $1.61B ETF outflow pressure

The key points:

• ETH is back above $2,300, having dropped below its $2,309 realized price after the $6.3 billion Binance breach.
• Tuesday marked the seventh straight session of outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs.
• Support sits at $2,250, then $2,204 and $2,107; reclaiming $2,309–$2,355 could improve the near-term outlook.

On Wednesday, Ethereum (ETH) moved back above $2,300, gaining over 2% in the past day.

Still, the second-biggest digital asset has not recovered its $2,309 realized price — an on-chain metric that tracks ETH's average purchase cost based on its most recent on-chain transaction.

That threshold was lost after the $6.3 billion Binance security incident last Thursday, which stoked fresh unease throughout the crypto sector.

The inability to regain that level coincides with persistent redemptions from US spot Ethereum ETFs, heightening worries over institutional appetite.

While ETH is still holding support around $2,250, its technical signals indicate that sellers remain in control.

Ethereum nears the $2,309 realized price

ETH's latest price moves underline the rising significance of its realized price, now seen at $2,309.

CryptoQuant figures show ETH dropped beneath that mark after the Binance breach and has had difficulty climbing back in the two days since.

Realized price is calculated from the last on-chain movement price of coins, weighted against the applicable supply.

This is often treated as a proxy for the market's overall cost basis, though it does not reflect each holder's true entry price.

When an asset is above its realized price, the market as a whole is seen as sitting on an unrealized gain.

Dipping below the indicator implies the average on-chain cost is higher than the current market price.

That dynamic can shape investor decisions, especially in uncertain times. In the week preceding Thursday's drop, ETH had stayed above its realized price, with demand repeatedly protecting that level.

However, the latest selloff has altered the near-term structure. ETH has met resistance near $2,309 as it tries to recover, hinting that some investors are selling into bounces toward their cost basis.

A durable return above the realized price would be a positive signal, possibly pointing to renewed buying interest.

Institutional interest is still a key worry. SoSoValue data shows US spot Ethereum ETFs saw close to $85 million in net outflows on Tuesday, marking a seventh straight day of withdrawals.

Those withdrawals come after a tough October, when the funds posted a record $1.61 billion in monthly net outflows.

The ongoing outflow streak points to investors trimming ETH holdings via regulated vehicles.

Ethereum defends $2,250 as bulls gradually return

On the daily chart, Ethereum's technical stance is gradually turning positive even though ETH trades under several key exponential moving averages (EMAs).

The 20-day EMA is at $2,352 and the 100-day EMA at $2,345. Both sit near the $2,355 horizontal resistance, forming a dense supply zone that may cap any rebound.

The 50-day EMA at $2,411 offers further resistance. With ETH below these averages, both short- and medium-term trends stay under strain.

Momentum signals reinforce the cautious view. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) sits near 39, under the 50 midpoint.

The stochastic oscillator, at roughly 34, points to weak upward momentum.

Collectively, they indicate that buyers still lack meaningful command of the market.

Ethereum's nearest support is $2,250. Holding that zone would let ETH stabilize and try another push toward $2,309, its realized price.

A firm daily close under $2,250, though, would damage the near-term setup and open the way to $2,204 as the next support.

Should selling pressure intensify, ETH could slide further to $2,107. A steeper pullback would put structural support at $1,971 and $1,827 in view.

To improve the near-term picture, buyers need to take back the $2,309 realized price first.

The next key resistance band is $2,345–$2,355, where the 100-day and 20-day EMAs meet horizontal resistance.

Breaking through that zone on a sustained basis might set up a move toward the 50-day EMA at $2,411. Further out, resistance lies at $2,548, $2,636 and $2,781.