Four Pressures Weigh on Bitcoin’s October Performance

Bitcoin (BTC) confronts four headwinds at the start of October, a month that has historically been bullish. The pressures include thin liquidity, cooling demand for spot ETFs, the conflict with Iran, and a deadline related to Mt. Gox.

The largest cryptocurrency has posted gains in 10 of the previous 13 Octobers, with a median return of 12.73%, according to Coinglass. In the current month, Bitcoin has risen 1.98%.

Stablecoin Supply Recovers Gradually

Analyst Darkfost noted that insufficient liquidity is flowing into the crypto market. The stablecoin market cap has declined by $14 billion since May, indicating substantial outflows.

Since September, supply has risen by $4 billion, bringing the total to roughly $270 billion. However, Darkfost described the recovery as too modest to drive Bitcoin to new peaks.

“Even though the trend now appears to be reversing, it remains too timid, and more will be needed to push Bitcoin toward new highs,” he wrote.

Large holders are deploying capital, but cautiously. The 30-day inflows from wallets transferring more than $1 million in stablecoins to Binance reached $30.5 billion. A month earlier, that amount was $21.7 billion.

That represents an increase of more than 40%. Yet in October 2025, the same cohort sent over $61 billion at its peak, almost twice the current figure.

“This behavior is probably torn between Bitcoin’s seasonality, with a highly anticipated October, and an environment marked by conflict, inflation, and the relentless rise in bond yields,” the analyst added.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Slow

Institutional interest has also waned. On September 21, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $998.95 million in inflows, the biggest daily amount in nearly a year.

Inflows then contracted for five consecutive sessions, falling to $31.07 million by September 28. On September 30, net outflows reached $148.69 million, breaking a nine-day inflow streak, as reported by BeInCrypto.

On October 1, flows turned positive at $102.67 million in net inflows, according to SoSoValue. Over the four sessions from September 28 to October 1, the funds attracted just $51.25 million. The previous week, they took in $2.39 billion.

Trading volume has also declined. Across the 12 funds, daily trading value dropped from $4.57 billion on September 21 to $1.97 billion on October 1.

Iran Conflict Moves Bitcoin Both Ways

The geopolitical risk mentioned by Darkfost has already affected Bitcoin's price. On October 2, BTC rallied toward $87,000 before a tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz reversed the advance.

Oil prices saw little change on the news, while crypto markets responded strongly. That incident was the sixth tanker attack in a week. Separately, the United States has deployed two additional Patriot missile batteries to guard energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, according to Axios. Washington is also dispatching more warships and troops as a potential return to conflict looms.

Meanwhile, Iran stated that the strait will remain closed until the US fulfills seven conditions from a June agreement. Since Bitcoin trades 24/7, it absorbs weekend war developments before stock and oil markets reopen.

Pressure may intensify later in October. US officials informed The Wall Street Journal that Trump plans to restart bombing campaigns against Iran following the November 3 midterms.

Signals of peace have pushed Bitcoin in the opposite direction. The cryptocurrency surged above $81,000 when Trump considered ending the war. With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, any new attack or ceasefire indication could move BTC either way.

Mt. Gox Deadline Approaches

The last of the four pressures arrives at the end of the month. According to the most recent data from Arkham, Mt. Gox's designated wallets contained 34,387.51 BTC, valued at $2.88 billion.

Under the current court-approved deadline, the trustee is required to complete creditor repayments by October 31. A year earlier, on October 27, 2025, it announced an extension, just four days before the cutoff.

This scenario yields two possible outcomes. A further extension would prevent the coins from entering the market, whereas distributions could give creditors Bitcoin that they might sell.

Historical seasonality has also faltered previously. Bitcoin dropped 3.69% in October 2025, marking its first negative that month since 2018. ETF flows and stablecoin supply will indicate whether new capital appears before the Mt. Gox decision.