Miners' Record Month Gives Way to a 21-Session Washout

At the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), nearly 92% of its stocks now sit below their 50-day moving average. The percentage last reached that level in late July, shortly before the miners notched a record month.

That figure arrives just days ahead of the Federal Reserve's Wednesday meeting, while market participants continue to price in the possibility of a rate increase later this year.

Gold Miners' 21-Session Slide: From August Leaders to Oversold

According to SentimenTrader, the proportion of GDX stocks trading above their 50-day average tumbled from more than 90% to 8% across 21 sessions.

Roughly 90% of the ETF's components also sit beneath their 200-day average, the largest share in three months, based on The Kobeissi Letter.

Gold has seen a milder decline, changing hands at $3,983.91, off 3.19% from a month earlier. On Friday, the metal dipped under $4,000 for the first time since July.

Operating leverage magnified miners' summer gains. The MSCI global gold miners index surged 43% in August, while gold gained about 13%.

Because miners trade as equities, they were swept into last week's stock selloff. Newmont shed 3.7% in Australia on Friday as the ASX mining sector lost 3.74%, Capital Brief reported.

Lessons from Earlier Washouts Heading Into the Fed

Earlier instances of such extreme readings ended in sharp rebounds. The Kobeissi Letter points to analogous patterns in March 2024 and December 2024, with GDX climbing 21.5% and 15.4%, respectively, in the following month.

The late July downturn followed that same path, though its rebound had a clear catalyst: the US Treasury's buyback plan.

There is also room for miners to recover given margins. Newmont, the world's largest gold producer, posted third-quarter all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $1,454 per ounce. Gold is currently about $2,530 above that figure.

Interest rates continue to pose a risk, with traders seeing a 75.4% chance of a December hike, according to CME FedWatch. Elevated rates increase the carrying cost of gold, which earns no interest.

Wednesday's decision will provide the first test of whether this washout repeats the July script.