Morgan Stanley: SpaceX Could Nearly Double to $300, but Clients Hold Back

SpaceX shares may almost double, reaching $300, in Morgan Stanley's view. Even so, at least 40 of its clients hold none of the stock.

SpaceX listed in June, selling shares at $135 in what was the biggest IPO on record. Four months on, the stock trades about 23% above that level.

Why Morgan Stanley Expects SpaceX Shares to Nearly Double

In a note reported Monday, analyst Adam Jonas held onto his buy rating and $300 price target. That objective is 89% higher than Friday's close of $158.96.

The case comes down to a single split. He assigns $127 a share to the rocket business and Starlink, the satellite-internet service.

About $32 of the price then goes to the artificial-intelligence business, which covers the Grok chatbot and the computing capacity SpaceX leases. Across roughly 13.2 billion shares, that puts AI's value near $420 billion.

Jonas sees that as too cheap. Recent short-term computing deals at SpaceX fetched $30 to $50 per watt of capacity, he said, while analyst models assume $17.60.

$SPCX – MORGAN STANLEY: SPACEX “CHEAP AND GETTING CHEAPER”

Morgan Stanley reiterates Overweight on SpaceX with a $300 price target, arguing the stock looks cheap once its growth profile is considered.

Analyst Adam Jonas says SpaceX trades roughly 40% below mega-cap AI peers on…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 5, 2026

Put differently, Jonas contends that today's buyers are mainly paying for rockets and Starlink, with only a small portion going to AI.

Why Investors Are Steering Clear of SpaceX Stock

Jonas checked demand directly. Last week he asked 40 clients in a room whether any of them owned the stock.

“not a single hand went up,” the Morgan Stanley analyst noted.

Jonas listed the worries investors cite most frequently:

• If Grok can stay level with rival AI models.
• If Starlink can secure the spectrum, or airwaves, needed for its mobile service.

In Jonas's view, both concerns are already reflected in the price.

Since its debut, the stock has also lost ground. The shares are trading about 30% below the post-IPO high of $225.64.

The post-IPO lockup ended on September 24, releasing about 328 million shares for sale. President Gwynne Shotwell likewise sold $52.5 million in stock.

At the same time, the AI division remains in the red. It lost $1.26 billion last quarter while eating up 86% of SpaceX's capital spending.

Not all analysts share his view. TipRanks shows targets as low as $142, and the average among 33 analysts is $235.10.

What Could Draw Investors Back to SpaceX Stock?

Jonas highlights Starship, Elon Musk's reusable spacecraft, after it completed a successful orbit recently. Flight 15 is slated for late October or early November.

If SpaceX manages to catch the returning ship, Jonas said, it could be the largest boost for the shares since the IPO.

Third-quarter results arrive in late October. Jonas also cites new Grok versions and additional computing deals as potential catalysts.

He also laid out what would sink the stock. A decline to $100 within a year would require an AI slowdown, a serious Starship setback, or dilution.

For now, the $300 target is facing a room where no hands were raised.