Nasdaq indices push for record closes as S&P 500 faces resistance

Investors are focusing on sustained economic growth, reduced urgency for a further Fed rate increase (the probability of an October hike is just under 20%), and optimism about technology and AI spending, which is pushing the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 higher today.

Friday's softer jobs data alleviated concerns about a near-term rate hike, while the strong S&P Global services figures released today indicate that business demand remains healthy.

The appeal for equities is that a cooling labor market does not automatically signal a sharp decline in corporate profits. Ongoing investment in AI infrastructure and Nvidia's strength (the stock hit a new record) are also bolstering the heavily weighted technology sector.

A note of caution: Treasury yields are still high and inflation worries persist. For now, however, investors are prioritizing the growth and earnings outlook and are willing to overlook those risks.

Among the three major indices, the S&P 500 is trailing the gains of the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100.

• S&P 500: The index has advanced 0.32% to 7747.71, having hit an intraday peak of 7758.32. To the upside, the swing highs ranging from 7771.48 to 7816.70 are the next obstacles. Buyers must move above and hold above that range to pave the way for additional upside momentum and fresh record highs.

  On the downside, last Thursday's low found support near the top of the 7573.60–7617.37 swing area. That region continues to be a crucial support zone, with the rising 100-hour moving average at 7568.18 just underneath. Staying above those levels keeps the advantage with buyers. A fall below the swing area and moving average would weaken the technical picture and tilt the short-term bias to the downside.

• Nasdaq Composite: The index is up 0.66% at 27368, after reaching a high of 27399.81. This places the price above the previous record close of 27244.28. On Friday, the index notched a new intraday high but failed to secure a record close. Buyers get another chance today. Will they succeed?

  The 27244.28 level serves as the immediate barometer. Staying above it keeps a record close in play and provides buyers with a nearby level to measure the move's strength. A drop back below would diminish the luster of today's advance. Farther down, the swing level at 26676.31 is an additional support target. It would take a move below that to give buyers reason to pause in the short-term bullish momentum.

• Nasdaq 100: The index is up 0.50% at 30959, having touched a high of 30996.01. Unlike the Nasdaq Composite, the Nasdaq 100 closed at a record on Friday. A positive close today would thus mark back-to-back record closes.

  For buyers, the swing highs from June between 30634.67 and 30762.20 now serve as nearby support. The price has broken above that zone. Buyers seeking further upward momentum hope it holds, at least over the short term.

  A retreat below 30762.20 would push the price back into the zone, and a decline below 30634.67 would indicate a failed breakout. That would be a short-term disappointment, bringing 30195.72 into focus, followed by the rising 100-hour moving average at 29517.22.

The significance of these levels: A break above an old high is a bullish step, but follow-through matters. When former resistance holds as support, buyers show willingness to defend the breakout. When the price falls back below that level, the breakout loses credibility.

At present, buyers have the advantage. The Nasdaq indices need to hold their gains into the close, while the S&P 500 still needs to push through its overhead swing highs. The support levels give traders a way to gauge whether that control is being maintained or starting to slip.