Oil plunges, dollar mixed as Iran talks continue

November trading got under way with crude oil falling sharply and fresh headlines from US-Iran negotiations. Reports over the weekend and overnight point to continued diplomatic efforts, though major obstacles remain on sanctions and reopening the Strait.

Iranian negotiators left Doha on Sunday, though sources indicated the departure was not caused by problems in the talks. A draft proposal has been shared for comment, and another meeting could still take place.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that messages are still being exchanged and that Washington needs to decide. He called the matters complicated and pointed to Iran's willingness to compress its seven-day proposal into two days as a sign of goodwill. Still, Tehran maintains that the Strait cannot reopen until US sanctions are removed.

Separately, Kyodo reported that a senior Iranian official linked reopening of the Strait to US acceptance of seven conditions. The official said Iran could take a more flexible stance on the nuclear issue if an agreement to reopen the Strait is reached.

For market participants, ongoing talks keep the possibility of a deal in play. The conditions attached to those discussions leave ample room for expectations to change again. Oil is starting the week sharply lower, but the headlines have not yet produced a confirmed agreement.

The dollar is trading in a mixed fashion. The Swiss franc is leading gains.

The US dollar is falling against the Swiss franc, euro, British pound and Canadian dollar, while rising against the Australian dollar, Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar.

The Swiss franc is the strongest currency in the snapshot provided, with USDCHF down 0.74% at 0.8189. The euro is also attracting buyers, with EURUSD up 0.52% at 1.1216. GBPUSD stands at 1.3422, up 0.23%.

On the other side, AUDUSD is down 0.33% at 0.7007, making the Australian dollar the weakest among major currencies. USDJPY is up 0.20% at 157.84, while NZDUSD is down 0.05% at 0.5625. USDCAD is little changed at 1.3971, down 0.01%.

That mix gives the morning a mixed currency feel. Buyers and sellers will need to derive their direction from individual pairs and the technical levels that define risk.

Currency ranges: EURUSD and USDCHF have already extended.

Using the session highs and lows from the price snapshot and the 22-day average ranges (roughly one month of trading), today's price action is active, with EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCHF trading near or above the ATR so far. EURUSD and GBPUSD have each corrected into the North American session. USDCHF is trading near its low of the day's range.

• EURUSD: 1.1155–1.1237 — 82 pips, or 122% of its 67-pip average.

• GBPUSD: 1.3380–1.3449 — 69 pips, or 97% of its 71-pip average.

• USDJPY: 157.48–157.99 — 51 pips, or 63% of its 81-pip average.

• USDCHF: 0.8190–0.8253 — 63 pips, or 124% of its 51-pip average.

• USDCAD: 1.3951–1.3987 — 36 pips, or 56% of its 64-pip average.

• AUDUSD: 0.7004–0.7036 — 32 pips, or 74% of its 43-pip average.

• NZDUSD: 0.5609–0.5645 — 36 pips, or 84% of its 43-pip average.

EURUSD and USDCHF have already exceeded their normal daily ranges, while GBPUSD has nearly completed its average. That does not rule out further movement, but traders pursuing those moves should recognise how much ground has already been covered.

USDCAD and USDJPY have the most room to extend relative to their averages. A data surprise or a technical break could provide the next push. The average range is context, however, rather than a requirement that prices travel further.

Stocks start November higher after a rough October.

US stock futures point to a higher open as traders begin a new week and month. The gains offer some relief after a difficult October, especially for technology, where worries about AI spending, profitability and earnings expectations weighed on sentiment.

• Dow futures: Up 175 points.

• S&P 500 futures: Up 33 points.

• Nasdaq futures: Up 193 points.

The early rebound gives buyers a chance to regain some control. The next test is whether those gains can hold and build after the opening bell. Following October’s selling, a stronger start is encouraging, but buyers still need to show they can sustain the momentum.

Apple earnings after the close.

Apple’s earnings after the close will provide an important early test for the new month. Investors will focus on iPhone demand, services growth and guidance for the holiday quarter. Commentary on AI features and their ability to encourage upgrades will also be closely watched, along with whether higher memory-chip costs are putting pressure on margins.

For the broader technology sector, the question remains whether earnings and guidance can support renewed buying. Apple’s results could help determine whether today’s rebound gains traction or sellers use the bounce to lean against higher prices.

Treasury yields: Short end higher, long end lower.

US Treasury yields are mixed, with the two-year yield moving higher while longer maturities edge lower:

• 2-year: 4.5999%, up 1.89 basis points.

• 5-year: 4.7215%, down 0.05 basis points.

• 10-year: 4.9207%, down 0.83 basis points.

• 30-year: 5.2911%, down 1.79 basis points.

The moves leave the curve flatter in the supplied snapshot. There is no uniform move higher or lower in yields to give the dollar a clear direction across the board.

Oil drops more than 4%. Metals rebound.

Crude oil is the standout mover, trading at $99.81, down $4.31 or 4.14%, as headlines from the Iran negotiations remain in focus. The move sends oil back below $100, with traders watching whether further diplomatic progress can sustain the selling.

Spot gold is trading at $3,900.175, up $24.53 or 0.63%. Silver is up 1.90% at $50.0392, while copper is up 0.67% at $6.5255.

Bitcoin is moving in the opposite direction, down $460 or 0.59% at $77,773. The gains in metals are therefore not being matched across all alternative assets.

North American calendar: ISM manufacturing takes centre stage.

The calendar builds toward the 10:00 AM ET releases:

• 9:30 AM ET – Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, October – Forecast: not shown – Previous: 51.5.

• 9:45 AM ET – US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, October final – Forecast: 56.0 – Previous: 55.9.

• 10:00 AM ET – US Construction Spending, September – Forecast: 0.3% – Previous: 0.9%.

• 10:00 AM ET – US ISM Manufacturing PMI, October – Forecast: 54.5 – Previous: 54.5.

• 10:00 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid – Forecast: 77.5 – Previous: 77.9.

• 10:00 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing Employment – Forecast: 52.0 – Previous: 52.7.

• 10:00 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing New Orders – Forecast: not shown – Previous: 55.3.

The ISM headline will give traders another reading on manufacturing growth, but the details could carry just as much weight. Prices paid will help frame the inflation discussion, while employment and new orders will provide a check on hiring and underlying demand.

A stronger headline accompanied by persistent price pressure would give traders a different message from one supported by improving orders and easing costs. Watch the components before drawing a conclusion from the headline alone.