OPEC+ likely to hold November quotas steady at Sunday meeting, delegates say

Given that delegates have already flagged the expected outcome, a rollover is unlikely to move crude prices much on its own; the physical flow of Middle East oil remains the more significant price driver. Brent settled around $103 on Tuesday after recovering exports dragged prices lower, with Kpler data indicating regional exports at roughly 16 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since the conflict began. Quota targets carry less weight while the Iran war keeps actual output well below them, so any shift in tone regarding 2027 baselines or a signal about resuming increases would have more impact than the decision itself. The risk to watch is a stall in the diplomatic track, which would keep supply disruption priced in regardless of OPEC+'s choice.

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OPEC+ is projected to keep November quotas unchanged, but with the Iran war limiting what Middle East producers can pump, the targets matter less than the actual flows.

Summary:

• Two delegates informed Bloomberg that key OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, are likely to maintain crude production quotas for November at a meeting this weekend.
• The group, having nominally completed the reversal of the 2023 supply cuts, will probably approve its existing roadmap and leave targets unchanged.
• OPEC+ statements indicate the next meeting is set for Sunday, October 4.
• At the September 6 meeting, the seven core members kept October quotas at September's levels, and Reuters reported the group must first assess members' capacity to set 2027 baselines, a discussion expected later in 2026.
• The Iran war has stopped Middle East producers from implementing the quota increases in practice, leaving actual output well below official targets.
• Recent monthly quota increases were around 190,000 barrels per day, with quotas climbing by roughly 800,000 barrels per day from April to July.

Key OPEC+ members are expected to keep crude production quotas steady for November when they convene this weekend, according to two delegates who spoke to Bloomberg. Countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, having nominally completed the reversal of supply cuts from 2023, will likely ratify their existing roadmap and leave targets unchanged for the month. OPEC+ statements point to Sunday, October 4 for the next meeting.

The anticipated rollover follows a similar move earlier this month. On September 6, the seven core members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—agreed in a virtual session to keep September's required output levels for October. Reuters reported at the time that the group must first review members' oil production capacity to set 2027 output baselines, which serve as the basis for future quotas, with that debate likely to occur later in 2026. Sources told Reuters that OPEC+ was consequently likely to pause output increases for the fourth quarter.

The pause comes after months of increases. The seven core producers raised quotas by around 800,000 barrels per day from April through July, with recent monthly hikes near 190,000 barrels per day, as part of the phased return of a 2023 supply cut. CNBC reported in July that the United Arab Emirates had left the group and that Iraq signalled a desire for higher quotas.

The headline targets, however, only tell part of the story. The Iran war has prevented Middle East nations from implementing the increases in practice, and actual output remains significantly below official targets for several members, according to Energy Connects. One analyst quoted there said OPEC+ currently has very limited control over the physical oil market. Crude exports from Middle East producers have begun to recover, with Kpler data showing a rebound to around 16 million barrels per day in September, the highest since the war began in late February.

The weekend decision is therefore likely to be seen as a holding pattern while the group awaits clarity on the conflict and on capacity. Attention will likely shift to the wording of the statement on compliance and the timing of any further unwinding, as well as the capacity review that will underpin 2027 quotas.