A Financial Times poll puts Donald Trump's approval at 34% three weeks before the midterms; prediction markets favor Democrats to win the House.
Donald Trump has the approval of only 34% of US voters with three weeks to go before the midterms, a Financial Times (FT) poll shows.
Those wagering on the outcome expect Republicans to lose control of the House. On Polymarket, Democrats are assigned a 91% probability of winning the chamber, with $16.4 million in volume.
Focaldata and the FT polled 2,275 registered voters online from October 2 to 4. Roughly one in five respondents approved of how Trump is handling inflation.
Over two-thirds said the economy was going in the wrong direction. Only a quarter voiced support for how he is handling jobs and the economy.
September's 29,000 new jobs were reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on the day the polling started. Its July and August figures were reduced by a combined 60,000 jobs.
Energy costs make up the other source of pressure. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) advanced 3.4% in the 12 months ending in August. Energy prices rose 16.3% over that period, and gasoline was up 27.4%.
Trump set the Iran war in motion on February 28, and since then energy has carried most of its inflation impact. For the first time last month, diesel climbed above $6. Trump is considering limits on diesel exports to cool prices.
His Iran policy has lost support too, with approval on the conflict down more than 7 points since May.
Forty-five percent of voters said Trump is making it harder for Republican candidates to win. Eighteen House races were moved toward Democrats by the Cook Political Report last week. A Democratic gain of 9 to 19 seats is its projection.
Prediction markets match that assessment. Democrats have a 64% chance on Polymarket's Senate contract, 19 points above the level when the market opened in July 2025. In that market, Democrats overtook Republicans in August.
A separate balance-of-power contract prices a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 62%. A Republican sweep stands at 9%, with $22.2 million in total volume.
Republican loyalty, however, has barely moved. Approval of Trump among his 2024 voters is now under 70%, compared with 80% in May.
Still, 80% plan to back the Republican candidate in their district. Trump has renewed his $5,000 "Trump Dividend" promise should Republicans win.
September inflation figures are due from the BLS on October 14, less than three weeks before Election Day. October's numbers arrive November 10, making the September report the final CPI reading before the vote.
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