September US goods trade deficit hit $134.9 billion, above forecasts

• The prior reading was -132.6.

The latest two months together are the worst consecutive pair since the run-up to Liberation Day, when companies were rushing goods into the US to get ahead of Trump's tariffs. Aside from Jan-Mar 2025, no two-month period has ever been deeper. The upshot, plainly, is that tariffs are failing.

For context, the Census Bureau's Advance Economic Indicators report includes the advance goods trade balance, arriving at 8:30 am ET about four weeks after the reference month closes. Along with it come early wholesale and retail inventory estimates, which make the release one of the better early inputs for tracking GDP.

The top-line number measures the US goods trade deficit — in other words, how much the value of goods shipped in exceeds the value of goods shipped out. The breakdown follows end-use categories: foods, feeds and beverages; industrial supplies and materials; capital goods; automotive vehicles and parts; consumer goods; and other goods. All the figures are seasonally adjusted, expressed in nominal dollars and compiled on a Census basis.

Goods are the only component in the advance report. Services trade, where the US is in surplus, is folded into the full international trade report from the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, out about a week later. That fuller release also provides country-level breakdowns and revised advance goods numbers.

The data are most important for GDP. Net exports are one piece of growth, so a larger goods deficit tends to subtract from GDP and a smaller one tends to add. With inventory estimates in the same report, the release often prompts economists and tracking models such as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow to revise their projections.

Trade flows have become notably more erratic in recent years. Businesses have front-loaded imports ahead of tariffs and then stepped back, producing sharp swings in the deficit and in quarterly GDP. Large moves in nonmonetary gold, booked under industrial supplies, have caused additional distortions that economists frequently set aside when judging the underlying trend.