USD strengthens against CAD, AUD, NZD; chart levels in focus

The US dollar has gained ground against the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars on the day. It has risen roughly 0.24% against both the loonie and the Aussie, and about 0.35% versus the kiwi. Each of the three is trading close to its intraday low versus the greenback.

But the greenback's advance is only a piece of the picture. The key issue for market participants is whether these technical moves will hold. Which price points suggest the dollar bulls remain dominant, and which would indicate the rally is losing steam?

USDCAD: The buyers have advanced, but the 100-day moving average continues to pose a challenge. The pair climbed above its 100-hour MA at 1.40287 and pushed through the 100-day MA at 1.40442. Yet the move above the longer-term average did not hold. The rate now sits around 1.4037, straddling the two levels.

This leaves market participants with a well-defined support level beneath and resistance above.

Staying above the 100-hour MA gives the buyers the short-term edge. However, they must reclaim and hold the 100-day MA to make the rally more convincing.

A sustained break above 1.40442 would open the door toward:

• 1.4082: The previously broken 38.2% retracement.
• 1.4093: The 200-hour moving average.

On the downside, slipping back under 1.40287 would dent the bullish case and bring the 50% midpoint of the rally from the August low at 1.40149 into focus. A loss of that level would give sellers added incentive to target the 1.3950 region.

The buyers have achieved some gains, but more work remains. Their risk is defined by the 100-hour MA, while the 100-day MA is the next barrier.

AUDUSD: The buyers got their opportunity above the 100-day MA but failed to capitalize. The pair rose above its 100-day moving average at 0.70317 on Friday and again in today's session. Each time, the bulls could not hold the level.

That failure is significant. Breaking above a longer-term average offers buyers a chance to seize greater control. When the price cannot remain above it, participants must acknowledge the rejection.

Selling pressure has now pulled the price beneath its 100-hour MA at 0.7016, tilting the short-term bias toward the bears.

That average now serves as a tight risk reference:

• Stay below 0.7016: Sellers retain the near-term advantage.
• Move back above 0.7016: The downside break loses momentum, and the battle between the 100-hour and 100-day moving averages is back on.

Should selling intensify, the next major downside target lies in the 0.6989-0.6994 zone, where the 200-hour MA and a swing area form a support region.

The bulls had their chance above the 100-day MA and failed. Now the bears have their chance below the 100-hour MA. The question is whether they can maintain control and advance to the next support.

NZDUSD: The 100-hour MA has surrendered; the 200-hour MA is now being tested. On Thursday, the pair briefly dipped under its 100-hour MA, but the break did not last. On Friday, buyers defended that moving average twice, maintaining the rebound.

Today, the trend shifted.

The rally topped out at 0.5707, barely below Thursday's high around 0.5709. The buyers could not extend the upturn, and sellers then drove the price under the ascending 100-hour MA at 0.56878.

That breakdown turned the short-term edge to the sellers. The rate has since fallen to 0.5671, putting the rising 200-hour MA at 0.5663 in sight.

The nuance matters: losing the 100-hour MA undermines the recovery. Losing the 200-hour MA would provide sellers with additional technical justification to push further down.

Should buyers defend the 200-hour MA, the pair would be trapped between two distinct levels:

• Resistance: The 100-hour moving average near 0.5688.
• Support: The 200-hour moving average near 0.5663.

Within that range, bulls and bears would fight for the next move. A drop under the lower MA would strengthen the bearish outlook. A climb back over the upper MA would indicate that sellers failed to capitalize on their chance.

The greenback has the momentum on this day. The technical levels will play a key role in seeing if that momentum persists.