USDCAD hits resistance near 1.4293 and reverses; is the uptrend over?

Since making a low near 1.3750 in early September, USDCAD has been in an uptrend. The 100-hour moving average, which is rising, has acted as a dependable support level, and buyers have kept a firm grip on the pair.

Over the period mentioned, only two hourly candles closed under that moving average — one on Wednesday after a slightly softer PCE reading, and one on Friday following the disappointing US jobs data. In both cases the price quickly bounced back. Sellers got chances but failed to follow through.

The pair then climbed to fresh yearly highs on Thursday and Friday. Today, the bullish momentum pushed it to 1.4293, but there it encountered a critical resistance zone where sellers stepped in.

A pair of technical levels offer sellers a defined area to sell against.

Every trend eventually ends, but calling the top of a strong move can be costly. Sellers need both a catalyst and a clear risk level before they can position.

Today, two distinct technical calculations converged on nearly identical resistance: 1.42928, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the late-January 2025 top to the late-January 2026 bottom, and 1.4295, the April 7, 2025 swing high.

These two levels are only about two pips apart. This cluster gave sellers a precise zone to defend, with a break above 1.4300 serving as a natural stop-loss reference.

The pair touched 1.4293, paused, and then turned down. Sellers finally scored a win. But holding resistance is just the beginning; they still must take out support to achieve a more significant outcome.

The initial downside target is currently holding.

The pullback brought the pair into a swing region between 1.4234 and 1.4247, formed by highs from late June and early July. So far today's low has held within that zone at 1.4239.

To gain further control, sellers must drive the price below 1.4234 and keep it there. Just under that level lies the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.42275, which adds another significant barrier.

This moving average is important because buyers have consistently relied on it to sustain the uptrend. A sustained move below it would indicate that the current pullback is more serious than the short-lived dips last week.

For now, buyers still have a support zone to defend.

Important technical levels to watch.

The sequence of support levels sellers need to break is:

• 1.4234–1.4247 swing zone (which includes today's low at 1.4239)

• 1.42275 rising 100-hour moving average

• 1.41845 200-hour moving average

• 1.41297–1.41488 next lower swing zone

Each level cleared would offer sellers more confirmation of a shift in control. However, if the price quickly recovers after a break, it could signal another failed downside move.

On the upside, the 1.42928–1.4295 zone remains the key resistance. A rise above that area and past 1.4300 would hand the initiative back to buyers.

Lesson for traders: a top requires confirmation.

The key takeaway for new traders is that a rejection at resistance can trigger a correction, but it alone does not guarantee a reversal.

Sellers who sold near 1.4293 had a technical justification and a clear stop level. Now they need to push further. A break of the swing zone and sustained trading below the 100-hour moving average would bolster their position. Breaching the 200-hour moving average would add further evidence.

Buyers, on the other hand, are monitoring the swing zone and the rising 100-hour moving average for support. If these levels hold, the uptrend's foundation remains intact.

Sellers have successfully defended a major resistance target. Their next task is to break through the support levels below. Without those breaks, the move remains a pullback within a bullish trend.