USDCAD holds 61.8% support but faces resistance wall

After topping out close to 1.4300 in October, USDCAD has been moving lower. The selling pressure is easing, though, as the pair tested the 61.8% retracement of its rise from the August low on Friday and again today. That retracement sits at 1.39497, inside a swing zone running from 1.3948 to 1.3963.

Buyers are using that support as a base and have lifted the price back toward 1.3975. That offers them a chance to mount a corrective push higher. It also gives them a nearby risk level. If the support area holds, buyers can remain in the game. A break below it could let the selling resume.

Buyers still have work ahead on the upside

Defending support is only a beginning. Buyers must still clear a group of technical resistance levels before they can regain more control.

The falling 100-hour moving average at 1.39976 is the first obstacle. The 200-hour moving average near 1.4009 comes next, and above that is the 50% midpoint of the August-to-October move near 1.4016.

Those levels serve as the next upside gauges. A push above the 100-hour moving average would encourage buyers, while clearing and holding above the entire cluster would reinforce the corrective bias.

Beyond that, the 100-day moving average at 1.40453 is the next objective. After it come the swing zone from 1.4068 to 1.4080, plus the 38.2% retracement at 1.40828.

A move under support would hand control back to sellers

On the other side, if the bounce fades below the hourly moving averages and the price falls under 1.3948–1.39497, sellers could push the decline further. The 200-day moving average at 1.38877 would then be the next major downside target.

At this point, buyers have stopped the drop at a support level that makes sense. They need to follow that defense by clearing resistance overhead. Without that, the rebound is still a correction inside the larger move lower.