WTI Crude Touches One-Month High as Midterms Near and Iran Tensions Build

West Texas Intermediate crude reached $106.2 per barrel on Friday, marking its highest intraday level since mid-September. The rise came after Iran alleged that mines struck four tankers, one day after US forces stated the Hormuz lanes were clear.

WTI later retreated to $104.1, while Brent traded near $111.9, a gain of 9.4% from a month earlier. For energy traders, the biggest factor lies ahead after the November 3 US midterms. Reports suggest renewed US strikes on Iran are being considered for that period.

Two Fronts Flare Before Americans Vote

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that three tankers exploded on the southern route on Thursday. Tehran considers that route off-limits.

Iran's army reported a fourth ship damaged by a mine east of the waterway. US Central Command (CENTCOM) had previously dismissed Iranian mine-strike reports as false and claimed US forces had cleared the main routes. On Thursday, the IRGC rejected that stance.

“Prove the claim that the Strait of Hormuz has been cleared of mines with independent evidence, not a statement,” IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said. “The reality of the Strait of Hormuz is determined in the air, on land and at sea, not on social media and in America’s media war rooms.”

“Over recent days and weeks, Iranian-controlled media have reported Iranian claims that commercial vessels are hitting sea mines while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. These claims are FALSE... All internationally recognized primary transit routes through the… pic.twitter.com/SPobSv6ZTf

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) October 28, 2026

The second front involves Saudi Arabia. Iran-backed Houthis asserted they carried out six attacks on Saudi airports and oil sites, including the Ras Tanura refinery.

Those claims emerged days after Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman attended a meeting in Tehran focused on “peace and security in the region.”

What November 3 Could Decide for Iran and Oil

Washington is now pursuing both force and diplomacy simultaneously. CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper presented Trump with military options regarding Iran on Thursday, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That briefing adds to earlier reports of strike plans on Iran after the midterms. The report indicates Trump could still opt against action.

Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance reportedly wrote to Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei about a framework for talks. When asked if he directed it, Trump said “No” and linked the outreach to medical supplies.

Polymarket traders still place an 83% chance on the ceasefire holding through November 3. The odds briefly dropped from above 90% to near 62% before recovering.

That contract expires on Election Day, while the reported strike window opens afterward. The 83% reading therefore reveals little about oil's trajectory into mid-November.

Brent already climbed toward its yearly high last week, reaching $117.42 on October 23. The World Gold Council has suggested a Democratic Congress could limit war funding, adding another post-vote factor.