XRP Shows Three Bullish Signs Before Historically Weak October

XRP (XRP) continues to display three bullish signals from its holder base, derivatives market, and ETF activity, even as the token gave up some of its September gains on Thursday.

At the time of writing, XRP was trading around $1.50, a decline of roughly 6.3% in the last day, based on BeInCrypto Markets figures. Despite the retreat, the token remains up more than 15.6% for the week, a rise that mirrors a wider market uptrend.

Year-Long XRP Holders Are Still Underwater

The first indicator involves addresses that have held XRP for the past year. Data from Santiment shows the token's 365-day market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio is approximately -11.75%. A negative figure signals that the typical wallet active during that period is currently at a loss.

For comparison, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Chainlink (LINK) are just above 0%, whereas Dogecoin (DOGE) stands deeper in negative territory at -19.26%.

A low MVRV typically restricts further declines since few holders have profits to cash out, according to Santiment. XRP holders remained in the red even after last week's recovery.

“Buying during that pain has historically offered better long-term setups,” the post read.

Futures Traders Return in Numbers Last Seen in January

As long-term holders cope with losses, futures traders are once again building positions. XRP futures open interest (OI) on Binance has risen to close to $600 million, a level not seen since January.

Analyst Darkfost from CryptoQuant highlighted the increase. OI measures the total value of outstanding futures contracts.

OI has also clearly moved above its 180-day moving average of roughly $445 million. Darkfost interpreted this as speculation making a comeback after months of low activity. He added that positive funding rates indicate buyers are behind the buildup.

“This return of positive sentiment on XRP’s derivatives markets is therefore an encouraging signal for the current momentum. That said, it’s worth keeping in mind that OI remains dangerous in case of excess. That’s not the case today,” the analyst added.

XRP ETF Buyers Keep Showing Up Every Week

Finally, demand for XRP spot ETFs has remained consistent. According to SoSoValue, the funds have recorded net inflows each week since mid-July, a streak that now spans 11 weeks, including the current week up to September 23.

Funds for Bitcoin and Ethereum did not show the same pattern. Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows in three of those weeks, notably $462.7 million in the week ending September 11. Ethereum products shed $140 million in the week ending September 18.

The XRP inflows are more modest, however. Weekly figures typically ranged from $1 million to $20 million, except for the week ending August 28 which saw $110.5 million. Total net inflows have now reached $1.75 billion.

2 Factors That Keep Bulls in Check

However, not all gauges of US demand have matched the ETF activity. According to CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain, XRP's Coinbase premium over Binance has contracted to around 0.0055%. The premium is often viewed by traders as an indicator of US spot purchasing.

A continued premium would suggest robust demand on Coinbase, but the current spread indicates no such strength yet.

The calendar provides a second note of caution, as October is just a week away. Data from CryptoRank shows XRP has ended October in the red in eight out of 13 years, with an average monthly return of -5.14%. The token also dropped 11.9% last October.

Thus, XRP enters a historically weak month with three signals tilted toward the bullish side. Whether Coinbase spot buyers will follow ETF investors could determine how much of that momentum is sustained.