Market Insights

Polymarket Senate bets: onchain data challenges insider-trading theory

Did a Polymarket trader with a string of winning Senate bets have inside information, as a recent New York Times story suggested? The New York Times reported on what it described as 'suspicious' bets placed by a single Polymarket trader who appeared to correctly predict the outcome of multiple U.S.

2026-11-09 · 5 min read

Market Insights

Prediction Markets Price a Democratic Sweep as Utah Access Narrows

Kalshi and Polymarket price Democrats at 74% and 73% for the Senate and 94% for the House, a repricing from 63% on October 2, but traders face spread, slippage, and total-loss risk, and Utah customers will be restricted from new election contracts starting November 2, 2026.

2026-11-04 · 5 min read

Market Insights

Can Prediction Markets Sustain Coinbase’s Income Growth?

Coinbase net income jumps 66% in Q3 2026, hitting a fresh earnings milestone that has little to do with the spot trading volumes most crypto traders watch daily. The honest read is that it already does, and the implications for execution quality and risk management are worth checking.

2026-10-31 · 6 min read

Industry News

Polymarket Trading Halt After $2.65M Exploit: What Users Need to Know

Polymarket suspended trading on October 29, 2026, after a third-party provider breach, with an attacker wallet holding approximately $2.65 million in POL. The platform resumed in cancel-only mode, but the provider's identity and a compensation plan remain unconfirmed.

2026-10-30 · 3 min read

Market Insights

Blockchain.com files for CFTC licenses to run US event-contract market

Blockchain.com has filed two license applications with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), seeking approval to operate its own event-contract marketplace in the United States.

2026-10-11 · 8 min read

Industry News

Kalshi Weighs $1B Raise at $40B Valuation as Six Sources Confirm Talks

Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange, is in advanced discussions to raise approximately $1 billion at a valuation near $40 billion, according to reports published across six independent publisher domains on September 29–30, 2026.

2026-10-09 · 6 min read

Market Insights

Tokenized Assets Prediction: What Aave's Collateral Shift Signals

When a lending protocol starts accepting tokenized equities as collateral, tokenized assets prediction shifts from abstract theory to a measurable market signal. The mechanism matters because it connects traditional equity value to decentralized finance without requiring a sale.

2026-10-09 · 8 min read

Market Insights

CFTC Staff Cuts Signal Weaker Oversight for Crypto Prediction Markets

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is losing enforcement personnel at the same time crypto prediction markets are gaining volume, a divergence that introduces real uncertainty for anyone trading event-outcome contracts.

2026-10-09 · 7 min read

Market Insights

Campaign Surge and Athlete Backlash: What Novig Credits Sydney Sweeney

Novig credits Sydney Sweeney for a trading volume surge after its "Just Sports" campaign drew athlete backlash, per a CNBC report. The controversy likely acted as a catalyst, but the spike's durability is unproven, so traders should monitor spreads and order book depth for transient liquidity.

2026-10-04 · 6 min read

Industry News

New York Sues Polymarket Over Unlicensed Gambling

New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a lawsuit against Polymarket on September 24, 2026, alleging the platform runs an unlicensed gambling operation. This is the fourth action in a coordinated campaign that already targeted Coinbase Financial Markets, Gemini Titan, and Kalshi.

2026-09-29 · 5 min read