Bitcoin's Weakness Likely to Last Until Fed or Banks Grow Balance Sheets: Hayes
Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin weakness to continue until the Federal Reserve or banks expand their balance sheets, even as a dollar-liquidity gauge rises.
XRP wallet growth on Nov 1 reached a 2026 high, but US demand cooled and bearish sentiment rose, leaving price near $1.25.
XRP saw one of its busiest days for new wallet creation this year. Yet, US buyers on Coinbase and in spot ETFs are holding back.
The divide leaves XRP around $1.25, down roughly 16% in the past month. The record Binance hack last week added more strain across the market.
Santiment reports that 7,934 new wallets were added to the XRP Ledger on November 1, the year's sixth-highest daily figure.
The jump occurred on a Sunday, typically a slower day for network activity.
Santiment said the hack may have driven more users to set up self-custodied wallets. The firm also noted the strong wallet growth around $1.25 points to rising usage despite price headwinds.
New users are entering, but the broader conversation around XRP has turned negative. Social media sentiment toward XRP has weakened for close to two months, Santiment data shows. The Binance breach accelerated that decline.
XRP now has about 0.61 bullish comments for every bearish one. Bitcoin (BTC) is around 0.69, while Ethereum (ETH) is near 1.14.
Santiment sees a relief rally as likely if sentiment stays below 1.0 while prices stop hitting new lows. However, the firm warned that fear alone does not mark the exact bottom.
"If BTC and XRP sentiment stays below 1.0 while prices stop making new lows, keep an eye out for a likely eventual mid-term relief rally," a post from the firm read.
That wariness also appears in US trading data, where XRP demand has cooled on two fronts.
The XRP Coinbase Premium Index dropped to around -0.16%, an eight-month trough, according to analyst Arab Chain.
Coinbase acts as an important venue for US retail and institutional traders. A negative reading means XRP is cheaper on Coinbase than on Binance.
Arab Chain remarked that the decline alone does not confirm further downside.
"Historically, sustained negative readings have sometimes been associated with weaker buying demand on Coinbase, while a return to positive territory may indicate a relative improvement in demand," the analyst commented.
Spot XRP ETFs exhibited a similar deceleration. They recorded $18.83 million in net inflows during October, according to SoSoValue. This figure was the smallest monthly inflow since January. September had brought $121.40 million.
Nevertheless, the fund flows remained stable after the hack. They posted an inflow of $8.43 million on October 29 and an outflow of just $496,000 on October 30.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs, meanwhile, lost $643 million on October 30. With adoption rising and US money cautious, XRP's next direction rests on a narrow price band.
XRP is at $1.25, down 0.65% over the past 24 hours, per BeInCrypto Markets. It has lost 4.43% over 7 days.
Santiment views $1.25 as the immediate pivot point. Regaining $1.30 with daily wallet creation above roughly 4,000 would strengthen the condition.
In contrast, a drop below $1.20 with daily network growth under 3,000 would weaken that indicator.
November ETF flows and the Coinbase premium will show whether US demand aligns with the new users.
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Disclaimer: this article comes from third-party media and is provided for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Crypto and other financial products carry significant price volatility risk, so please make your own decisions carefully.
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