Bitwise CIO Says $6.3B Binance Hack Would Have Been Fatal for BTC a Decade Ago

In the view of Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, the attack on Binance would have been enough to destroy the exchange if it had happened ten years earlier. He argues that the $6.3 billion heist does not alter Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term trajectory.

Historical evidence supports Hougan when it comes to the big picture, though not for the immediate aftermath. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US saw $643 million in outflows the day following the hack, yet the selloff had begun before the attackers struck.

Have Earlier Hacks Altered Bitcoin’s Trajectory?

Mt. Gox, at one time the leading Bitcoin trading platform, sought bankruptcy protection in February 2014 following the disappearance of as many as 950,000 BTC. Over that month, Bitcoin dropped 30%, according to Bloomberg.

In 2024, however, repayments to creditors began, and NBC valued the missing coins at more than $58 billion.

Around 120,000 BTC was taken from Bitfinex in August 2016. Bitcoin declined 13% across two days, although some of that drop came before the news was made public.

In February 2025, Bybit suffered a loss of about $1.5 billion, with its reserves sliding from $10.8 billion to $6.5 billion in just a few days.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s monthly return moved to negative 13.6%, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, as part of a wider pullback.

Daily outflows from Bitcoin ETFs then reached an all-time high of around $1 billion four days afterward.

What Sets the Binance Hack Apart From Mt. Gox?

Binance, by comparison, says it has already made good on $6 billion of what was taken.

Starting November 1, the exchange brought withdrawals back in stages, beginning with Bitcoin.

The exchange added that its partners froze about $3 billion, nearly half the stolen amount, something Hougan reads as a sign of industry maturity.

He also noted that institutions five years ago had no ETFs offering a more secure option.

The FBI has blamed North Korea for this attack, just as it did in the Bybit case. North Korea was very likely behind a $350 million theft in September, according to Bitget Chief Executive Officer Gracy Chen.

Hougan described the event as a conventional cybersecurity breach rather than a failure in Bitcoin’s blockchain. Since 2025, North Korea has been connected to Bybit, Bitget and Binance, which means exchanges may stay the weak spot.

Upcoming ETF flows will determine whether Binance can repeat Bybit’s roughly $3 billion week or whether its momentum fades faster.