Tucker Carlson said Trump could soon order a nuclear strike on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain, citing an unnamed observer. No final decision has been made.
For oil markets, the significance of the allegation lies less in its particulars than in what it implies about the dangers heading into Tuesday's midterm elections. Putting the nuclear angle aside for a moment, verified reporting indicates there is a solid possibility of fresh US military action against Iran shortly after the elections, especially since Israel is said to be pressing for an immediate response. This sustains a significant geopolitical premium in crude prices and clarifies why institutions including Goldman Sachs are factoring supply disruption allowances into their forecasts; more on that will follow. Set against that is Trump's expressed desire to give Qatar-brokered negotiations room to proceed, along with Iran's plan to have the Strait of Hormuz back open within two days, both of which offer a route toward lower tensions. Traders will probably remain extremely reactive to any headlines out of Washington, Jerusalem or Tehran in the days ahead, and sharp moves are conceivable in either direction.
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Tucker Carlson's explosive, unconfirmed allegation has intensified the dispute over the president's next move after the midterms, even though what is known shows Trump weighing both military action and diplomacy.
Key points:
Right-wing commentator Tucker Carlson has asserted that President Donald Trump could be on the verge of a nuclear strike against Iran, pushed by Netanyahu. No independent confirmation exists for the allegation, and nothing in official statements or established reporting backs the idea that nuclear arms are on the table.
Writing on X, Carlson identified the target as Pickaxe Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence believes Tehran has resumed uranium enrichment. He cited an unnamed "informed observer" who said Netanyahu phones Trump about the issue daily, contended that the complex could not be destroyed with conventional arms, and suggested Trump would probably make a call by November 7. Carlson further said the president was wavering and paying attention to Vice President JD Vance and envoy Steve Witkoff, both of whom think a diplomatic agreement is achievable.
Carlson has openly split with Trump on the Iran conflict and has said before that the president ought to have been stripped of office for raising the possibility of nuclear arms use.
Parts of the background have been verified. At Mar-a-Lago on Saturday, Trump told reporters that US forces had destroyed most of Iran's nuclear and military capacity but that one or two sites still required attention, specifically Pickaxe Mountain, and that the job could be accomplished in 10 minutes. He still described the negotiations as proceeding well, while calling Tehran untrustworthy, and said he was in no great hurry to act again.
Axios, citing Israeli and American sources, reported that the two leaders had a strained conversation by phone on Saturday. Netanyahu, the report says, is urging an attack right after Tuesday's US midterm vote, while Trump prefers to see how the talks proceed for now.
An administration official said the White House will not discuss sensitive military plans that may or may not be real, and noted that Trump is keeping every option available to make sure Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that no definitive decision to restart strikes has been reached.
Tehran rejects any claim of nuclear work at the Pickaxe Mountain facility, and Iran's Supreme Leader has cautioned Washington and Israel not to carry out further attacks.
These allegations surface while a parallel diplomatic effort is underway. Iranian representatives are negotiating with Qatari mediators over an arrangement that Tehran claims could have the Strait of Hormuz operating again within two days, if the US accepts its conditions; Iran's security chief has called a recent letter from Vance a sign of a more constructive American approach. The president's choice between dialogue and military action following the midterms will probably determine what comes next in the standoff.
Contemplating the use of nuclear weapons is dreadful. If there is anyone who would do it, Trump would rank near the top of the list.
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