Copper's Slide Draws Bullish Calls From Deutsche Bank and BMO

Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) are set for their steepest weekly fall since May, down more than 2%. Bloomberg cited higher energy costs and a stronger dollar as clouding the demand outlook.

The downturn began in the same week that Deutsche Bank projected the metal could gain about 50%.

What Drove Copper Prices Lower This Week?

Rising oil prices linked to the Iran war have been a drag on copper in recent sessions, according to Bloomberg. Three-month copper on the LME finished Thursday at $14,243.50 a ton, a 1.16% decline for the day, exchange data show.

Data out of China, the world’s biggest copper consumer, is another headwind. In August, industrial profits there increased 4.2% year on year, a slowdown from July’s 11% growth.

That was the weakest figure since profits fell last November. On Monday morning, LME copper slipped 1% to $14,478 a ton, and zinc and aluminum moved lower as well.

A firmer dollar added to the headwinds. The US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the greenback against six major currencies, is up 0.77% this week. It traded around 101.97 on Friday.

Can Supply Tightness Outweigh the Macro Headwinds?

Supply is the basis of Deutsche Bank’s positive view, even though oil, the dollar and China’s data have weighed on demand this week. Copper, in the bank’s projection, will reach $22,050 a ton during the second quarter of 2027.

Analyst Daniel Ghali described the current backdrop as a “historic scramble for metal.” China, by Deutsche Bank’s estimate, holds 2.05 million tons of copper in strategic reserves.

Threatened US copper tariffs have also drawn metal into American warehouses. The bank expects those warehouses to hold 1.3 million tons by the end of the year.

Those holdings, in the bank’s view, could lock away 71% of worldwide above-ground inventories by the end of 2026. BMO Capital Markets has also revised its outlook upward, lifting its 2030 copper forecast to near $18,000 a ton.

After many years of not fully understanding the enormous challenges we’re facing in the copper market, we are FINALLY starting to see more realistic price targets.

Last night, analysts at @BMO raised their copper price forecast to ~$18,000 per tonne by 2030… 50% above what the…

— Robert Friedland (@robert_ivanhoe) September 28, 2026

Copper ended Thursday about $7,800 short of Deutsche Bank’s $22,050 target, implying upside of roughly 55%. Chinese buying resumes once the National Day holiday ends on October 7.