Silver stabilizes after Fed's Williams, Jefferson ease October rate hike expectations

The following provides a fundamental overview.

Silver has been moving sideways near recent lows, reflecting the dovish stance of Fed's Williams and Fed's Jefferson, who indicated there is no rush to hike rates again in October.

Those comments strengthened the perception that the Federal Reserve has little inclination to tighten, aligning with September's dot plot message.

If the Fed proves less aggressive than market participants anticipate, real yields might fall as inflation expectations increase more quickly than nominal yields, which could keep silver supported.

The US NFP report is the main focus today. Following Williams and Jefferson's statements, only an exceptionally strong report that surpasses all forecasts could bring back expectations of an October rate hike. That result could cause another hawkish repricing and pressure silver in the near term.

Conversely, data that meets or falls short of expectations would likely solidify the dovish repricing, giving silver space to stretch its recent pullback.

The following is the silver technical analysis for the daily timeframe.

silver has been staying in a narrow range near its recent lows. A retest of the former support now acting as resistance near 63.00 may bring sellers in, with defined risk above that point, maintaining the 55.00 level as a target. For their part, buyers would want the price to move higher to extend the pullback toward the downward trendline.

The following is the silver technical analysis for the 4-hour timeframe.

The price has moved above the minor downward trendline that had set the bearish momentum. This could indicate a larger pullback is ahead. Buyers are likely to accumulate near these levels with risk below the lows, positioning for a rally toward the major downward trendline. In contrast, sellers would want the price to drop back below the trendline and continue to new lows, initially targeting the 55.00 level.

The following is the silver technical analysis for the 1-hour timeframe.

Consolidation around the lows is more pronounced. Buyers may seek a rejection at the upward trendline or a break above the downward trendline to push the rally toward the 63.00 resistance, while sellers may look for short opportunities near the downward trendline or on a break above the upward one to set up a drop to new lows.

The following covers upcoming catalysts.

The US NFP report ends the week today.