How Anthropic’s IPO Filing Is Rippling Into the Copper Market

Copper moved back above the support trendline it had held since April on Tuesday, wiping out the breakdown seen last week. The gain followed a recovery in AI stocks after Anthropic released its IPO filing.

That leaves the metal roughly 3.5% below September’s record. But inventories in US warehouses are still climbing, which may keep a lid on how far buyers can push prices.

What’s Behind Anthropic’s IPO Boost to Copper?

Anthropic, the maker of Claude, made its IPO filing public on Monday. The Nasdaq added 0.8% and Nvidia gained 2.4% as chip stocks drew strength from the filing.

Data centers are the link. The IPO document shows roughly $587 billion in compute and lease obligations, and each new AI campus is built with copper wiring.

Last week the same connection worked in the opposite direction. On October 22, a technology selloff helped push copper below its April trendline.

“…the recent rout in AI stocks hit copper prices hard, reflecting just how sensitive the metal has become towards the AI sector.”

James Harte, analyst at Tickmill

Can Physical Copper Tightness Keep the Rally Alive?

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 1.1% to $14,487.50 per tonne, its strongest reading since October 16, according to Reuters.

Outside the US, supply looks thin. China’s Yangshan premium, the fee buyers pay to bring in refined copper, climbed to $188 per tonne, the highest in nearly 13 years.

Stockpiles tracked by the Shanghai exchange dropped more than 25% over the course of a week, while smelters idled for maintenance.

ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey expects the tightness to underpin prices. Broker Sucden Financial, however, said the increase in US stockpiles is still capping the headline price.

Is the $6.95 Record High Back in Play?

The daily chart shows the October 22 breakdown running out of steam within days. The 0.382 Fibonacci support near $6.31 was never touched.

At roughly $6.72 per pound, the metal is pressing against the $6.64 to $6.72 resistance zone that contained October rallies.

Should the metal settle above that zone on a daily basis, a move toward the $6.95 record could open up.

Should the breakout stall, the main support for buyers may be the 0.382 level at $6.31. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of momentum, is hovering near 53 and trending upward.

Wednesday’s rate decision from the Federal Reserve, plus this week’s Big Tech earnings, will put the AI bid to the test. Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, described the Anthropic IPO listing as “a referendum on the entire AI trade.” So far, copper is voting the same way.