Officials confirm Qeshm Island strike as Trump dismisses fresh war risk

The confirmation that the US carried out the Qeshm strike and weeks of other unreported attacks is a direct blow to the optimism that saw crude oil drop almost 4% on Monday. A bigger threat to oil prices comes from reports that Gulf nations were asked to ready themselves for a brief but intense US campaign right after the midterm elections. This sets a clear timeline at the same time as Trump denies planning fresh strikes and attributes lower oil costs to the easing of conflict fears. The oil market is facing a dual path: crude prices could rebound sharply if a larger operation occurs, but sustained restraint and mediation efforts could reinforce Monday’s declines. The main risk remains Iran’s promise to retaliate inside and beyond the Middle East, which threatens tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz.

Washington is quietly striking Iranian targets as Trump publicly plays down the prospect of war, forcing oil traders to balance official calm against signs of a possible post-election campaign.

• US officials confirmed the attack on Iran's Qeshm Island on Monday, backing up earlier unverified reports of blasts.
• The operation is the most recent in a chain of limited US strikes on Iran over recent weeks that were not publicly disclosed.
• Officials characterised the strikes as defensive, intended to curb Iran's capacity to hit merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Trump stated Monday that the US had not been engaged in combat with Iran for months and replied “no” when asked about potential post-midterm strikes, even as aides said he was considering all choices.
• The report said the US had alerted Gulf states to expect a brief, powerful operation soon after the election.
• Iran maintains that it is up to Washington to secure an agreement, while officials have cautioned of reprisals within and beyond the Middle East should fighting resume.

US officials confirmed Monday's strike on Iran's Qeshm Island, verifying earlier unverified explosion reports. The Wall Street Journal reported the attack was the most recent in a series of quiet, limited US operations against Iran, conducted as President Donald Trump was minimizing the chances of a renewed conflict.

On the same day, Trump told journalists the Iran conflict was basically over, claiming “we haven’t been doing any fighting for months.” However, Journal sources said smaller strikes had been happening for weeks. These were described by some officials as defensive, aimed at stopping Iran from hitting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. In contrast to earlier war stages, these strikes were not publicized. One official explained the secrecy was designed to avoid giving signals of a return to major combat.

Qeshm Island is located at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, containing an underground missile facility, a naval base, and a major desalination plant. The Journal noted the US has struck the island in past fighting and officials have debated capturing it. The Defense Department directed inquiries to US Central Command, which offered no immediate comment.

The report further indicated preparations for a larger campaign. Centcom positioned extra missile defenses and munitions in the region. The US informed Gulf states, according to the Journal, to ready themselves for a short, fierce operation following Tuesday's midterms. Trump had suggested for weeks that full-scale war might restart post-vote. Senior aides offered a spectrum of options, from additional airstrikes to tougher sanctions and a stricter blockade on Iranian trade.

Yet, in the hours ahead of the vote, Trump's tone shifted. He answered “no” to a question about post-midterm strikes. Both he and Vice President JD Vance signaled that talks on Iran's nuclear program remained possible. Administration officials stated the president was still considering all possibilities.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the onus for any agreement is on Washington, calling Tehran's demands reasonable. Senior figures, including Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, have cautioned that Iran would strike back inside and outside the Middle East if the US renews the conflict.