Goldman sees yen, Nikkei risk from faster BOJ rate path
Goldman Sachs expects the Bank of Japan to hike this week and accelerate tightening, boosting yen but pressuring Nikkei.
Goldman Sachs expects the Bank of Japan to hike this week and accelerate tightening, boosting yen but pressuring Nikkei.
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to hike its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, while bitcoin remains stable ahead of the decision.
Central banks in the U.S., U.K., and Japan meet this week, along with key inflation data from Canada, the U.K., the U.S., Japan, and the Eurozone.
The yen has risen nearly 4% this month ahead of Fed and BOJ meetings, with rate decisions set to determine its next move.
The BOJ is set to raise rates by 25bp next week, but the central bank gives no clear signal on further hikes, leaving markets focused on pace and terminal rate.
Japan's wholesale inflation stayed hot in August, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise rates next week.
Markets see high odds the ECB, Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve all raise rates this month, with the Fed's decision hinging on Friday's CPI report.
Gold held near $4,400 and oil traded flat. BOJ's Masu signaled further rate hikes, while Trump proposed $5,000 checks. Germany moved to end crypto taxβ¦
BOJ board member Masu says underlying inflation near 2%, warns weak yen and rising costs could force faster rate hikes.
Treasury Secretary Bessent claims inside knowledge on yen policy, stoking questions about BOJ independence and market risks.
Treasury Secretary Bessent dares traders to bet against a stronger yen, citing coordination with Japan.
Hedge funds bet on yen strength, with dollar-yen options targeting below 150. Bitcoin may face pressure as cheap yen borrowing costs rise.
Factory confidence in Japan hit near five-year high in September Reuters Tankan, driven by chip demand; manufacturers index reached +21.
BOJ expected to hike rates next week, but yen rally may be limited if Ueda signals caution.
The yen hit a six-month high against the dollar as BOJ hike bets built, while China's August imports missed forecasts and the Kospi gained nearly 2%.