Warsh's Fed credibility at stake, but markets see 91% rate hike odds
Fed Chair Warsh faces his first major credibility test as markets see a 91% rate hike chance, with potential political and market fallout.
Fed Chair Warsh faces his first major credibility test as markets see a 91% rate hike chance, with potential political and market fallout.
UK inflation rose to 3.1% in August, a five-month high, ahead of the Bank of England's interest rate decision.
Markets expect a 25 bps Fed hike today, testing Kevin Warsh's credibility on forward guidance and independence.
The Fed is set to hike by 25 bps, with traders watching the dot plot for clues on further tightening.
UK headline CPI rose to 3.1% in August, while core inflation held steady at 2.6%, in line with forecasts.
Fed faces overwhelming market pressure to hike rates as inflation persists and yields surge, with a hold seen as riskier.
US poverty fell to 10.2% in 2025 and median income hit a record $87,460, though inflation has since accelerated.
UK August CPI data due today, with headline seen rising to 3.1%. Core and services inflation in focus ahead of BOE decision.
UBS's daily note identifies three lasting themes: growth matters more than rate hikes, AI demand rises despite calls for regulation, and earnings drive markets.
Global government bond yields have surged to multi-year highs as inflation and borrowing concerns drive a broad selloff across developed markets.
Markets see 91% chance of Fed rate hike on Wednesday, but attention turns to signals for further tightening.
Canada will allow immediate expensing for most new capital investment, Prime Minister Mark Carney said.
New York's September manufacturing index fell to +7.6, well below the +15.0 forecast, from +20.6 in August.
Pentagon estimates Iran war at $33.4B, but fuel costs hit consumers with $106.5B, triple the military's figure.
UK labour market data showed further cooling in July and August, with payrolls down 26,000 and wage growth easing to 3.9%, ahead of the BOE decision.