Binance Hack: Lee Says Muted Response Is Bullish; Stablecoin Data Contradicts

According to BitMine Chairman Tom Lee, the subdued reaction to the $6.3 billion Binance hack points to a bull market. On the other hand, stablecoin and sentiment data indicate that both money and confidence are still leaving the market.

At press time, Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $2,254.11, down 1.71% over the last 24 hours, based on BeInCrypto Markets. ETH has fared better against Bitcoin (BTC) this week after losing ground for most of October. It is down 2.87% over the past seven days, compared with BTC’s 3.6% decline.

Tom Lee Interprets a Calm Market as Bullish

Lee presented his argument in BitMine’s weekly holdings report. He contrasted the Binance theft with the $1.5 billion Bybit hack in February 2025.

According to Lee, ETH lost 8% on the day Bybit disclosed the hack and 20% within a week. In contrast, ETH has fallen 4% since the Binance announcement, even though the amount stolen was roughly four times larger.

Lee attributed the calm response to six factors.

• Binance is capable of covering all customer losses.
• No chain of decentralized finance (DeFi) failures occurred, as it did after Bybit.
• Rapid action from the industry sliced potential losses in half.
• The FBI named North Korea within 2 days, compared with up to 180 days in past heists.
• The hack hit Binance’s corporate systems, not a blockchain.

The sixth factor tied price movements to the direction of the market.

“Limited price downside is a sign that a crypto ‘bull market’ is underway, notwithstanding recent price declines,” Lee said.

In the same period, BitMine added 8,573 ETH over the past week, bringing its reserves to 6,060,506 ETH. That amounts to 4.9% of Ethereum’s total supply of 122.2 million tokens.

Stablecoin and Sentiment Data Tell the Opposite Story

Contrasting with Lee’s price-based argument, data on liquidity and sentiment calls for caution.

Analyst CW8900 put total stablecoin market capitalisation at $270.3 billion on October 1. That figure has now slipped to $263.4 billion, indicating a $6.9 billion outflow over the past month.

CW8900 described the trend as bearish. Bull periods usually start when money enters the market, the analyst noted, but funds have continued to leave.

“For a rebound to occur, stablecoins must flow back into the market. Once stablecoin flows shift back to a net inflow, the market is likely to show a rebound,” the post added.

Sentiment has also worsened. On November 3, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 26, landing in Fear territory. A day earlier it was 37, a week earlier it was 48, and a month earlier it had been 65, in Greed territory.

CW8900 forecasts a rebound once stablecoin flows become positive again. Until that point, Lee’s bull market thesis for ETH rests largely on price resilience.