Macro and political uncertainties keep Solana under selling pressure

Solana suffered a pronounced decline on Thursday in the wake of the Binance hack, as fears of contagion across the crypto sphere weighed on sentiment. The uptick in forced sell-offs amplified the decline, with SOL proving particularly vulnerable given its elevated volatility and speculative positioning.

Solana later mounted a recovery following Binance's pledge to cover customer losses, as initial worries started to dissipate. An improving tone around US-Iran negotiations also helped bolster risk appetite.

The macro landscape remains a difficult one for a durable rebound, constrained by inflation threats, growth concerns, expectations of additional Fed tightening and geopolitical instability. Solana is also highly responsive to shifts in overall crypto market sentiment because of its high-beta profile.

Altering the prevailing bearish trajectory likely requires a breakthrough in US-Iran talks or softer signals from the Fed. An unexpected Republican victory in the US midterm elections could also lend support by stoking expectations of further fiscal expansion. A Democratic victory, conversely, could trigger more downside for SOL if the Iran talks stall or if Trump opts to escalate the conflict.

SOLANA technical analysis: daily timeframe structure

Solana pierced the critical 97.00 support after the Binance hack and is now nearing the main upward trendline. Buyers are expected to test the trendline, with a defined risk level below it, to position for a rally into the 148.00 level. Sellers, meanwhile, will want to see the price break lower to increase bearish bets toward the 75.00 handle.

SOLANA technical analysis: 4-hour timeframe structure

A descending trendline is defining the bearish configuration on this timeframe. Should the price pull back into this trendline, sellers are anticipated to lean on it, with a defined risk above it, to target a break below the main upward trendline. Buyers, conversely, are hoping for a move higher to pile in for a rally into the 113.00 level next.

SOLANA technical analysis: 1-hour timeframe structure

A slight descending trendline is dictating the bearish momentum here. Sellers are likely to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk above it, to maintain the push toward lower levels. Buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to extend the pullback toward the main downward trendline. The average daily range for today is factored into the structure.

Upcoming catalysts

The US Job Openings report and the US midterm elections land on today's schedule, although first results are due early tomorrow. The ADP employment report and the ISM Services PMI arrive tomorrow. Thursday brings the latest US Jobless Claims figures. The week closes on Friday with the US NFP release and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.