Ukraine ends drone pause, strikes three Russian refineries in three nights

The reactivated drone campaign once again highlights Russian supplies of refined fuels, especially diesel, as the Iran war has already squeezed global energy markets.

Harm to processing facilities, like a diesel hydrotreater at the Novokuybyshevsk plant, may reduce Russia's fuel shipments abroad and provide support to refining margins if the shutdowns continue, though outside observers have not independently confirmed the degree of damage.

Should domestic refining be impaired, Russia might also increase its exports of unprocessed crude.

Politics further clouds the picture: Washington has pressured Kyiv to cease the attacks and attributed elevated fuel costs to them; consequently, whatever decision the US takes after Tuesday's midterm elections could alter the trajectory of Russian energy exports and sanctions.

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Earlier:

• OPEC+ leaves December output targets unchanged for third consecutive month as Hormuz disruption persists
• Tehran reports two tankers struck mines in Hormuz while offering a two-day plan to reopen the strait

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Kyiv's unwritten energy cease-fire with Washington has dissipated amid strikes on three Russian refineries, as Ukraine gambles that damaging Moscow's oil earnings justifies the diplomatic price just ahead of the US midterm elections.

Summary:

• Drones from Ukraine reportedly attacked three Russian refineries over three consecutive nights starting October 30, bringing a roughly two-week halt in such assaults to an end.
• The sites hit comprised Rosneft's Novokuybyshevsk refinery in Samara, the Bashneft-Novoil facility in Ufa, and LUKOIL's NORSI refinery in Kstovo. Together they can process roughly 33 million tonnes of crude per year, about one-tenth of Russia's total refining capacity.
• The preceding pause came after the US repeatedly demanded a halt to refinery hits, with Trump blaming such strikes for elevated fuel prices worldwide. The Kremlin asserted that Kyiv was now disregarding US demands.
• Ukraine has not officially acknowledged the refinery attacks and stated it was reacting to intensifying Russian strikes on its energy infrastructure.
• Negotiations involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US are anticipated later this month.

Ukraine has recommenced drone operations against Russian oil refineries, striking three large facilities over three consecutive nights and concluding a roughly two-week interlude that occurred under strong pressure from the Trump administration to halt these attacks.

The initial attack, occurring during the night of October 30, ignited a blaze at Rosneft's Novokuybyshevsk refinery situated in the Samara region. Subsequently, an industrial zone in Ufa that hosts the Bashneft-Novoil refinery came under assault, and then an overnight attack on November 1 targeted LUKOIL's NORSI plant in Kstovo, among Russia's biggest refineries, per Ukrainian tracking group Dnipro Osint and official Russian media. The combined processing capacity of the three refineries amounts to roughly 33 million tonnes of crude annually, approximately one-tenth of Russia's total refining capability. Still, that number refers to capacity that was aimed at, not to actual production losses verified. Fire Point, a Ukrainian manufacturer of drones, claimed participation in the Novokuybyshevsk and Kstovo operations, saying a diesel hydrotreating unit was hit.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Ukraine had not attacked a Russian refinery since October 15, nor any Russian oil infrastructure since October 20, during a period when US officials repeatedly urged Kyiv to cease such strikes. Trump has held the assaults responsible for elevated worldwide fuel costs, a phenomenon that energy specialists predominantly ascribe to the US-Iran war. He also lifted US sanctions on Russian diesel last month. Reportedly, European allies had counseled Kyiv to delay until after Tuesday's US midterm elections.

The Kyiv Independent quoted Ukrainian officials as stating that they never accepted a US request for a 30-day pause. The Kremlin declared that Kyiv was now simply disregarding Washington's wishes.

Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's president, has not admitted to the refinery attacks, seemingly to keep from angering Washington. Zelensky has stated that Ukraine must answer Russia's intensifying operations against its own energy network. On Thursday, Russian drone and missile attacks killed at least 27 civilians throughout Ukraine; overnight attacks on Sunday left hundreds of thousands of homes without electricity, with Kyiv enduring power cuts that could last up to 10 hours. Zelensky has indicated that Ukraine seeks reinforced safeguards for its energy facilities as a condition for stopping refinery strikes.

Diplomatic efforts persist even as the situation escalates. Negotiations among Russia, Ukraine, and the US are anticipated later this month, and the Kremlin has stated that President Vladimir Putin is prepared to hold a telephone conversation directly with Zelensky. However, Moscow's core territorial demands have not shifted, thereby constraining the chances for a more comprehensive resolution.